Tag Archives: VP-candidate prediction markets

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections. – The bad point is that, at … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayth, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Joe Biden, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US politics, vice president prediction markets, VP prediction markets, VP-candidate prediction markets, Wall Street Journal, WSJ | 3 Comments

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Posted on August 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii. [...] Mr. Obamaâ€™s decision had as much … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Bo Cowgill, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, Tom Snee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 1 Comment

Never trust a politician.

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTade, InTrade, Joe Biden, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | Leave a comment

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

â€œFriend — I have some important news that I want to make official. Iâ€™ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.â€ Some blogger says his wife is fantastic. New York Times portrait of Joe Biden. UPDATE: Barack Obama‘s speech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Caveat Bettor, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Democratic VP nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, primary indicators, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP nominee, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 2 Comments

While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.

Posted on August 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BBC News: According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result. Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tom Snee, TradeSports, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 8 Comments

Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?

Posted on August 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Who will be Obama’s choice for VP?

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, play-money prediction markets, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | Leave a comment

ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.

Posted on August 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and you don’t know which ones) are a big orchestration of pure lies aimed at creating publicity, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Caveat Bettor, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Jack Shafer, Joe Biden, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, VP-candidate prediction markets | 5 Comments

Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.

Posted on June 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The topic of this post is: Betting & Information – - #1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting, Democratic Vice President, Dick Cheney, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, FREE FALL, George W. Bush, Google, head, Hillary Clinton, information, Information Technology, InTrade, Iraq, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, PageRank, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Use technology, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, VP, VP nominee, VP prediction markets, VP predictions markets, VP-candidate prediction markets | 10 Comments

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