Tag Archives: US DoD

Pinching Adam Siegel’s nose… AGAIN.

Inkling Markets: What are some examples of public prediction markets? One of the first and oldest prediction markets [*] was run by the University of Iowa in 1998 [**] to predict the outcome of United States Presidential Elections. [***] In … Continue reading

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HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline

For an updated version of this document, see the “paged” Prediction Markets Timeline. – CHRONOLOGY & HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline – Feel free to post a comment or contact me, and I’ll correct or add a factoid. Thanks. – #1. … Continue reading

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Robin Hanson should have written to the New York Times’ public editor.

2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA‘s IAO’s FutureMAP–Policy Analysis Market project Here’s the New York Times news article on PAM , titled Pentagon Prepares A Futures Market On Terror Attacks. [Wrong. It was a prediction exchange on Mid-East issues. Market-generated predictions are … Continue reading

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Pinching Adam Siegel’s nose… gently.

Inkling Markets: What are some examples of public prediction markets? One of the first and oldest prediction markets [*] was run by the University of Iowa in 1998 [**] to predict the outcome of United States Presidential Elections. [***] In … Continue reading

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The truth on the 2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA’s IAO’s FutureMAP/Policy Analysis Market project.

The Policy Analysis Market project was badmouthed last week by Bruce Hansen of The Register, so I’m publishing here some excerpts of Robin Hanson’s verbatim. — Robin Hanson: [...] It fell to me to explore possible application areas, and after … Continue reading

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The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications

Bruke Hansen: [...] The day concluded with three papers covering prediction markets, the first by Robin Hanson, the world’s leading proponent of prediction markets and former head of DARPA’s notorious “terror casino”. Robin Hanson – futarchist, cryogenic enthusiast, and all … Continue reading

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What do you think? This is pathetic and disgusting, a waste of taxpayer money with all this nonsense. This is a joke.

— Quizz Of The Day: Who said that?? — This is a single-answer survey. E-mail your answer to Chris Masse. #1. Hillary Clinton upon hearing about GMU prawf Robin Hanson‘s grand plan for the 2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA‘s IAO’s FutureMAP/Policy … Continue reading

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North Korean Missile contract expiry.

Climate expert James Annan has just mentioned the Seal Level Rise prediction market, at Foresight Exchange, and here’s what I read: Judge’s Statement Standard ambiguity clause: If the wording is found to be ambiguous the Panel will judge on the … Continue reading

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