Tag Archives: President

Why Robin Hanson is right to freak out about the upcoming CFTC ruling on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson is trembling in his pants: Coming soon after speculators were blamed for rising commodity prices, I fear this is bad news for hopes for legal prediction markets anytime soon. – The CFTC decisions are politically sensible in 4 … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged BetFair, CFTC, CME Group, event derivative markets, event derivatives, insider trading, laws, Orange, particular presidential candidate, Politics, prediction markets, President, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robin Hanson, Sports, terrorism, Tom W. Bell, United States | 1 Comment

In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.

Posted on July 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- UPDATE: He took the bait… -

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Al Gore, Barack Obama, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Pennock fan club, Politics, prediction markets, President, probabilities, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 1 Comment

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, DC 20581 U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: â€œConcept Release … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged 202.418.5521, 4th of July, ABC, Acting Chairman, American Enterprise Institute, Andy Serwer, Arthur Levitt Jr., Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Brookings Joint Centre, Bush, Cato Institute, CEO, CFTC, Charles Noussair, Chicago, Chicago Tribune, Chief Executive Officer, CNN, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, David Leonhardt, David Paton, David Pennock, de facto leader, Economics Reporter, economist, energy, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, European Central Bank, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, federal government, Federal Reserve System, Florida, Fortune, Frankfurt, general public use, George Mason University, governor, HDDVD, Important Mission, InTrade, InTrade CEO, Ireland, Ivy League College, Jason Ruspini, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, KING, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London, managing editor, Marco Ottaviani, Mark J. Perry, Mark Perry, media businesses, Michigan, naturaldisaster, New York, North Korea, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Limited, prediction markets, President, price discovery information, Professor, professor of economics, Ray Disc, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Reuters, Richmond, Robert Mugabe, Robin Hanson, Saddam Hussein, Secretary, Securities and Exchange Commission, Stephen Dubner, the Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, TIME MAGAZINE, Toshiba, traded bets, U.S. Department of Energy, United States, United States Navy, University of Michigan-Flint, University of Westminster Business School, US government, USD, Wall Street Journal, Walt Lukken, What InTrade, White House, Yoshiaki Arata | 3 Comments

“InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.”

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- UPDATE: Some smart comments, just below… -

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, betting markets, DOW, Dow 30, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Politics, prediction markets, President, stock markets, stock prices, United States, United States Of America, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 5 Comments

FOREIGN OIL DEPENDANCY: Will the next US president adopt T. Boone Pickens’ 10-year energy plan?

Posted on July 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Would make a great long-term prediction market. – T. Boone Pickens’ Op-Ed – $$$ T. Boone Pickens – Video @ Market Watch – Pickens Plan .com T. Boone Pickens – Video – Some energy prediction markets listed at PPX. -

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged energy, energy plan, energy prediction markets, natural gas, nuclear energy, oil, President, T. Boone Pickens, United States, wind | Leave a comment

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | 1 Comment

Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse Midas Oracle cfm —— midasoracle —— com chrisfmasse —— gmail —— com July 6th, 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st St. NW Washington D.C. 20581 Attention: Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov Reference: Concept … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, Barack Obama, BetFair, CFTC, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, David Pennock, decision support tools, Eric Zitzewitz, European Union, event derivative markets, event derivatives, false solutions, France, Google, HedgeStreet, Internet search engine, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, prediction markets, President, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, research scientist, retail customers, retail traders, Robin Hanson, Search Engine, Secretary, Tom W. Bell, TradeFair, TradeSports, United Kingdom, United States, USD, web searches, Yahoo! | 3 Comments

Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse Midas Oracle cfm —– midasoracle —– com chrisfmasse —– gmail —– com July 6th, 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st St. NW Washington D.C. 20581 Attention: Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov Reference: Concept … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, Barack Obama, business media organizations, CFM, CFTC, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, European Union, event derivative markets, event derivatives, France, Jason Ruspini, Lafayette Centre, law professor, laws, prediction markets, President, Professor, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Secretary, Tom W. Bell, United States, Vernon Smith | Leave a comment

NewsFutures is the most usable prediction exchange I know of.

Posted on July 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Each time I get to trade on a NewsFutures-run prediction market, I have the pleasure of my life. Better than sex. – A Democrat will be elected President in 2008. Â© NewsFutures – Plus, it’s easy to embed their dynamic … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Usability, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Democratic party, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Internet Usability, Market Trading, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, President, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, usability | Leave a comment

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

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