Tag Archives: prediction market approach

BetFair are impermeable to the prediction market approach.

BetFair seem to be stuck with the betting approach, as far as I can see. The prediction market approach would require that you present to the public (as opposed to the small population of bettors) the probabilities expressed in percentage. … Continue reading

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TradeFair was first branded as a serious financial prediction exchange, but it didn’t work out, and TradeFair is now actually an operator that applies gambling (not betting) to the financial markets.

Take a look at their ad: Three remarks: They got carried away from the prediction market approach (which, unlike InTrade, they never understood fully, anyway). This gambling approach of the marketing of the prediction markets is very interesting in terms … Continue reading

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TradeFair Hi Lo = the 5-minute prediction markets, which will bring a financial cachet to gambling (alas, for some).

It is official: TradeFair Binaries, launched less than one year ago, has been a disaster of nuclear proportions, and so The Sporting Exchange have ditched it, and replaced it with “TradeFair Hi Lo“ —which is basically a way to bring … Continue reading

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BetFair Predicts = a new WordPress-powered website concocted out of San Francisco, California… —whose informational value is close to zero.

BetFair Predicts – UPDATE: The guy in charge says in the comment area that this is just an early beta website, which is going to be much improved soon. – - WHAT I LIKE IN BETFAIR PREDICTS BetFair Predicts is … Continue reading

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Global Election Market = a play-money prediction exchange for forecasting all the world’s political elections

- Brought to you by CountryWatch, which has been providing “country intelligence, news, and forecasts for over 10 years — with customers both international and domestic customers in the academic, corporate, government and military markets.” Best wishes to them. – … Continue reading

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InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

InTrade’s PageRank is now 7 / 10 —while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10. It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages –not … Continue reading

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Are you PMA compatible? These 2 researchers are leading the way.

Previously: The prediction market approach

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The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach

These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages): – HubDub – InTrade .NET … [*] … would get the full point if they were to switch the label “price” for “probability” on their charts. – NewsFutures … gets … Continue reading

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Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete

I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of … Continue reading

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Prices or Probabilities?

Probabilities… … and then… Prices. – Talk first probabilities… because people interested in news get the concept and vocabulary. Then, later on, when only the bettors and traders stay with you for the rest of the conversation, talk prices. – … Continue reading

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