Tag Archives: prediction market analysis

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 19, 2008 — Leave a Comment

“No Manipulation At InTrade“
Exactly.
John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets.
InTrade is not liquid enough to weather (quickly enough) the impact made by the hedging activities, at this time, but will in the future, if growth continues.
Manipulation is [...]

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, Odd Numbers, political hedging, political prediction markets, Portofolio, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, Zubin Jelveh

Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 19, 2008 — 5 Comments

How can you assess the impact of Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama? You can’t.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged Barack Obama, chart analysis, charts, Hedging, InTrade, non-informational trades, political hedging, Politics, prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections

What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 14, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Consensus Point:
First, every market price is a prediction. Think of a familiar securities market such as a stock market. The price of a company’s stock is a forecast of the value of future dividend payments. A bond price is a forecast of the value of a defined set of interest payments, based on factors such [...]

Posted in Consulting, Explainers | Also tagged businesses, Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, corporations, enterprise prediction markets, firms, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Fortune 500, internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Written by Emile Servan-Schreiber on September 12, 2008 — 34 Comments

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind still favor a Democrat in the White House. That disconnect prompted Chris to wonder aloud [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures, polls, polls vs. prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction market accuracy, prediction market efficiency, prediction markets

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Written by Mike Linksvayer on September 11, 2008 — 6 Comments

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?

In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.
Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Politics, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections

State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 3, 2008 — 7 Comments

Prediction market analyst Lance Fortnow in an e-mail to me:
Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’t keep up. In past elections the markets were much better than the polls within a few days [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged accuracy, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Lance Fortnow, polls, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, state polls

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 26, 2008 — 3 Comments

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections.
- The bad point is that, at the time he wrote up his column, Virginia governor Tim Kaine was the favorite of the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayth, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Joe Biden, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysts, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US politics, vice president prediction markets, VP prediction markets, VP-candidate prediction markets, Wall Street Journal, WSJ

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 24, 2008 — 1 Comment

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii.
[...] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Bo Cowgill, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, Tom Snee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs

Never trust a politician.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 23, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTade, InTrade, Joe Biden, Politics, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 23, 2008 — 2 Comments

“Friend — I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”
Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.
New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.
UPDATE: Barack Obama’s speech + Joe Biden’s speech
-
I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Caveat Bettor, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Democratic VP nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, primary indicators, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP nominee, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs

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Tag Archives: prediction market analysis

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?

What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets?

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Never trust a politician.

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

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