Tag Archives: prediction market analysis

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“No Manipulation At InTrade“ Exactly. John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to weather (quickly enough) the … Continue reading →

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Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

How can you assess the impact of Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama? You can’t.

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What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets?

Posted on October 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Consensus Point: First, every market price is a prediction. Think of a familiar securities market such as a stock market. The price of a company’s stock is a forecast of the value of future dividend payments. A bond price is … Continue reading →

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Is Intrade out on a limb?

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind … Continue reading →

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Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →

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State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets

Posted on September 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction market analyst Lance Fortnow in an e-mail to me: Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’t keep … Continue reading →

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Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections. – The bad point is that, at … Continue reading →

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The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Posted on August 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii. [...] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much … Continue reading →

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Never trust a politician.

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“Friend — I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.” Some blogger says his wife is fantastic. New York Times portrait of Joe Biden. UPDATE: Barack Obama‘s speech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments