Tag Archives: New Hampshire

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 28, 2009 — 2 Comments

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls:
“a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.”
Via Mister the Great Research Scientist David Pennock –who is an indispensable element of the field of prediction markets.

As I blogged many [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds

Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 20, 2008 — 5 Comments

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Our good friend Barry Ritholtz.has persuaded himself that our real-money prediction markets suffer from an irremediable and fatal problem: liquidity on political event derivative markets is too thin for smart Wall Street people like him to take their market-generated probabilities seriously. Barry Ritholtz is keen to tout oranges–apples comparisons: the NYSE volume versus the Obama–Clinton [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Also tagged accuracy, advanced indicators, Barry Ritholtz, clueless mainstream media, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance blogger, Market Liquidity, omniscience, polls, prediction markets, the New York Times, trades, transactions, volumes, Wall Street

Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 20, 2008 — 15 Comments

Via Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets,
John McQuaid of Wired.

It’s incoherent to start a rant against prediction markets by this upbeat line, “Prediction markets can be spookily accurate.”
He blames the New Hampshire upset on poor liquidity. Where is the scientific evidence of that? Total invention by our good friend Barry Ritholtz. The New Hampshire prediction markets [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Leading & Lagging Indicators | Also tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Barry Ritholtz, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, John McQuaid, mainstream media, prediction markets, the New York Times, Wired, wisdom of crowds

Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 22, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Ah, Kansas… Barbecues, pickup trucks, rednecks, country music, and… the local FOX News.
Despite that one blip on the radar [New Hampshire], Strumpf said futures are still the best way to predict the way things will go from here.
Spot the SIDEBAR (which is not located on the sidebar, actually), and click on the little square, just [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, FOX News, Humor, Kansas, Koleman Strumpf, prediction markets, Professor

Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 30, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file).
All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani’s recent decline is due to a poor campaign, rather than a poor strategy.
I have just read the 3-page New York Times story on [...]

Posted in Politics, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged John McCain, Justin Wolfers, New York Times, prediction markets, Rudy Giuliani, Wall Street Journal

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 27, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Dear Midas Oracle readers,
I’m happy to report progress in building the architecture and content of our group blog, Midas Oracle. Let me introduce you to our 2 master pages: “PREDICTIONS” and “BEST”.
—
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#1. PREDICTIONS

http://www.midasoracle.org/predictions/
= our explainer on prediction markets + the best charts of prediction markets
Following the New Hampshire brouhaha, I believe that the way to [...]

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration, Midas Oracle Statistics | Also tagged best, charts, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, Justin Wolfers, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle, multi-author, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilities predictions, the New Hampshire, The Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal, web stats, web stats services, Web-based resource

Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 23, 2008 — 3 Comments

Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco
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I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now:
Republican nomination – The race so far
I’ll have some comments, below the chart, but first a technical note. The new chart posted is a [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged ABC, accuracy, BetFair, BetFair blog, betting markets, blog editor, BMP, David Jack, Editor, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, furious Betair blog writer, governor, Internet connection, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mark Davies, McCain, Michel Robb, Michigan, Mitt Romney, Niall O'Connor, Niall Or'Connor, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Marks, Tony Clare, web publisher, web publishing, writer

Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 22, 2008 — 1 Comment

Lance Fortnow:
[...] Notice that when we have a surprise victory in a primary, like Clinton in New Hampshire, much of the talk revolves on why the pundits, polls and prediction markets all “failed.” Meanwhile in sports when we see a surprise victory, like the New York Giants over Dallas and then again in Green Bay, [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Science | Also tagged Clinton, Dallas, David Pennock, Green Bay, Lance Fortnow, New York Giants, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, probability

NIALL O’CONNOR ATTACKS THE INTELLECTUAL HONESTY OF THE PREDICTION MARKET RESEARCHERS.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 20, 2008 — 8 Comments

Niall O’Connor (who maybe ate grilled snake for his Sunday morning breakfast ):
The current trend to promote almost illiquid betting markets as being predictive, looks set to backfire bigstyle. In a nutshell, to date the so called “prediction markets” have called it wrong in New Hampshire (Democrats), Michigan (Republicans) and South Carolina (Republicans). [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Also tagged CONNOR ATTACKS, criticism, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Michigan, Niall O'Connor, prediction markets, South Carolina

MICHIGAN PRIMARY @ BETFAIR: Niall O’Connor asks the very pertinent question.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 19, 2008 — Leave a Comment

UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.
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Let’s re-visit the Michigan primary (BetFair edition) story, now.
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Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams on the official BetFair blog:
[...] Those [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged BetFair, BetFair blog editor, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, governor, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, McCain, Michigan, Michigan primary, Mitt Romney, Niall O'Connor, prediction markets, Professor

Tag Archives: New Hampshire

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.

Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.

Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??

Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101

NIALL O’CONNOR ATTACKS THE INTELLECTUAL HONESTY OF THE PREDICTION MARKET RESEARCHERS.

MICHIGAN PRIMARY @ BETFAIR: Niall O’Connor asks the very pertinent question.

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