Tag Archives: New Hampshire

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

Posted on May 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Our good friend Barry Ritholtz.has persuaded himself that our real-money prediction markets suffer from an irremediable and fatal problem: liquidity on political event derivative markets is too thin for smart Wall Street people like him to take their market-generated … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged accuracy, advanced indicators, Barry Ritholtz, clueless mainstream media, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance blogger, Market Liquidity, New Hampshire, omniscience, polls, prediction markets, the New York Times, trades, transactions, volumes, Wall Street | 5 Comments

Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.

Posted on May 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets, John McQuaid of Wired. It’s incoherent to start a rant against prediction markets by this upbeat line, “Prediction markets can be spookily accurate.” He blames the New Hampshire upset on poor liquidity. Where is … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Barry Ritholtz, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, John McQuaid, mainstream media, New Hampshire, prediction markets, the New York Times, Wired, wisdom of crowds | 15 Comments

Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Ah, Kansas… Barbecues, pickup trucks, rednecks, country music, and… the local FOX News. Despite that one blip on the radar [New Hampshire], Strumpf said futures are still the best way to predict the way things will go from here. Spot … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, FOX News, Humor, Kansas, Koleman Strumpf, New Hampshire, prediction markets, Professor | Leave a comment

Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet

Posted on January 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file). All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani’s recent decline is due to a poor … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged John McCain, Justin Wolfers, New Hampshire, New York Times, prediction markets, Rudy Giuliani, Wall Street Journal | Leave a comment

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Posted on January 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Dear Midas Oracle readers, I’m happy to report progress in building the architecture and content of our group blog, Midas Oracle. Let me introduce you to our 2 master pages: “PREDICTIONS” and “BEST”. — — #1. PREDICTIONS http://www.midasoracle.org/predictions/ = our … Continue reading →

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged best, charts, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, Justin Wolfers, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle, multi-author, New Hampshire, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilities predictions, the New Hampshire, The Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal, web stats, web stats services, Web-based resource | Leave a comment

Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco — I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now: Republican nomination – The race so … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged ABC, accuracy, BetFair, BetFair blog, betting markets, blog editor, BMP, David Jack, Editor, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, furious Betair blog writer, governor, Internet connection, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mark Davies, McCain, Michel Robb, Michigan, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Niall O'Connor, Niall Or'Connor, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Marks, Tony Clare, web publisher, web publishing, writer | 3 Comments

Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Lance Fortnow: [...] Notice that when we have a surprise victory in a primary, like Clinton in New Hampshire, much of the talk revolves on why the pundits, polls and prediction markets all “failed.” Meanwhile in sports when we see … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Science | Tagged Clinton, Dallas, David Pennock, Green Bay, Lance Fortnow, New Hampshire, New York Giants, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, probability | 1 Comment

NIALL O’CONNOR ATTACKS THE INTELLECTUAL HONESTY OF THE PREDICTION MARKET RESEARCHERS.

Posted on January 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor (who maybe ate grilled snake for his Sunday morning breakfast ): The current trend to promote almost illiquid betting markets as being predictive, looks set to backfire bigstyle. In a nutshell, to date the so called “prediction markets” … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Tagged CONNOR ATTACKS, criticism, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Michigan, New Hampshire, Niall O'Connor, prediction markets, South Carolina | 8 Comments

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