I think all the excitement over the New Hampshire prediction market prices is creating another “-Pentagon moment”- for the concept. A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out just fine.
Consider that the criticism is a product of high expectations —- people are complaining that, contrary to expectations, the markets were not better than the polls. People are noticing that prediction markets are not perfect. People all over the place are arguing about prediction markets.
It may look bad, but to me it appears as if there is a broad base of awareness and relatively high expectations out there that wasn’-t evident in the press six months ago. Furthermore, a lot of people who hadn’t thought too much about prediction markets have now had the topic thrust in front of them.
It will turn out more than “just fine” for prediction markets – the market for prediction markets will continue to grow. It may look like a very public black eye, but that is because political prediction markets are now in the fight.