I think all the excitement over the New Hampshire prediction market prices is creating another “-Pentagon moment”- for the concept. A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out just fine.
Consider that the criticism is a product of high expectations —- people are complaining that, contrary to expectations, the markets were not better than the polls. People are noticing that prediction markets are not perfect. People all over the place are arguing about prediction markets.
It may look bad, but to me it appears as if there is a broad base of awareness and relatively high expectations out there that wasn’-t evident in the press six months ago. Furthermore, a lot of people who hadn’t thought too much about prediction markets have now had the topic thrust in front of them.
It will turn out more than “just fine” for prediction markets – the market for prediction markets will continue to grow. It may look like a very public black eye, but that is because political prediction markets are now in the fight.
“A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out just fine.”
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When people realize that prediction markets are not magical, will they still mind them? That’s the one-million-dollar question.
True, people looking for magical devices will go elsewhere, but that is okay.
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People willing to spend money to improve their forecasts, they are the people to appeal to. Sure, some of these people also hope for a magical tool to make uncertainty go “poof” and disappear, but several more practical risk takers willing to consider evidence will have prediction markets pop up on their radar screen.
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I want to convince people who have practical risk and uncertainty problems and who would benefit from better tools to address that uncertainty and who will look at evidence. I don’t want to be in the business of selling hokum powder and reading palms.
I hate to say that, but you could be right coz I see many bloggers coming to the defense of the prediction markets. See my updated list here:
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..ss-so-far/
Michael, I generally agree but maybe we should use this episode to re-galvanize a push for legal prediction markets in the US.