Tag Archives: Koleman Strumpf

Here’s the man who would deliver a wise analysis on whether the InTrade HCR PM is being manipulated or traded by “DC insiders”.

Posted on March 10, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Koleman Strumpf on how weaker copyright protection benefits society

Posted on June 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Koleman Strumpf on how weaker copyright protection benefits society

Posted in Business, The Global Economy | Tagged copyright, Koleman Strumpf | Leave a comment

Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast.

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, assessing election forecast, BetFair Predicts, historical prediction markets, Koleman Strumpf, prediction acccuracy, prediction market accuracy, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Historical Political Prediction Markets

Posted on October 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective – (ungated, earlier version: PDF file) – by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf – 2008-10-xx

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged accuracy, historical prediction markets, Koleman Strumpf, political election prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

Historical Prediction Markets

Posted on September 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations | Tagged bet exchanges, bet markets, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance. politics, historical prediction markets, History, Journalism, Koleman Strumpf, prediction exchanges, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, ProQuest, US politics, Wall Street | Leave a comment

Paul Kedrosky … sucks. — Plus, Jason Trost is bashing InTrade and BetFair in order to boost his startup, Smarkets.

Posted on August 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I will soon publish a full post on the relative accuracy of the VP prediction markets (and whether the prediction markets are useful at all, taking into account the occasional upsets theorized by Koleman Strumpf) —tackling Paul Kedrosky, Felix Salmon, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, BetFair, betting markets, CNN, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Jason Trost, Koleman Strumpf, Paul Kedrosky, prediction markets, Smarkets | Leave a comment

Is Koleman Strumpf a provocator?

Posted on August 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Joke. One week later, the debate is still raging under his post. New comments from David Pennock and Jason Ruspini. I like when people argue with each other. It generates pageviews. Commenters frenetically download that webpage to see whether their … Continue reading →

Posted in Humor, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged Humor, Koleman Strumpf, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Answering Koleman Strumpf’s riddle

Posted on August 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The structure of InTrade’s commissions …?… The design of InTrade’s multi-outcome markets …?…

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged exchange commissions, InTrade, Koleman Strumpf, market designs, prediction markets, Riddler | Leave a comment

A documentary film is going to be made about the book “Freakonomics”. The problem is that the film won’t be made by one able and focused director —but rather by a bunch of folks, whose implication in the whole project will be ultra minimal. The expected result of that idiocy is that their documentary will be an uninteresting mosaic of short and superficial takes, and will surely tank at the box office, like all the Paris Hilton movies did. The Hollywood Stock Exchange traders are no idiots: they are sensing that that Freakonomics project is a stinking lemon, and they are selling the event derivative like it is bubonic plague.

Posted on July 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The “esteemed” economists are lining up, trying to second-guess the HSX traders, jotting down their favorite hypothesis about the possible reason for the upcoming disaster —but all smart that they are, they can’t see the obvious: THE FREAKONOMICS DOCUMENTARY … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged able and focused director, Freakonomics, Freakonomics documentary, Hollywood Stock Exchange, idiocy, Koleman Strumpf, Paris Hilton, prediction markets, Steve Levitt | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: Koleman Strumpf

Meta

Recent Posts