Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?

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Koleman Stumpf

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

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Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

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Asia Times:

[&#8230-] Outperforming Taiwan&#8217-s polls shouldn&#8217-t be hard. They&#8217-re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party&#8217-s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan&#8217-s prediction markets did a much better job of estimating vote shares (the island&#8217-s two markets both called the Kaohsiung mayoral election wrong, but that contest was a statistical dead heat). &#8220-Most opinion polls usually have 20 to 30% &#8216-no answer&#8217-,&#8221- said Lin Jih-wen, director of the Center for Prediction Markets. &#8220-We don&#8217-t have missing data or a sampling bias, that&#8217-s our strength.&#8221-

The market has now picked the strong likelihood of victory by the China-friendly candidate Ma Ying-jeou. Time will tell if it&#8217-s got the right guy. But even if it doesn&#8217-t, the markets&#8217- enthusiastic reception shows how Asia – like the US and Europe – has embraced such markets as a powerful fortune-telling tool.

A &#8220-powerful fortune-telling tool&#8221-? Jesus. :-D

&#8220-Outperforming&#8221- the Taiwanese advanced indicators which they are feeding on? Humm&#8230- :-D

[Mike Giberson will write a comment, below, reminding me of Prof Koleman Strumpf&#8217-s work (PDF file) showing that the historical prediction markets were accurate enough, even though the scientific polls were not invented yet. Yes, I know of that, Mike, but I still don&#8217-t get whether it&#8217-s a puzzle or a mystery. :-D &#8230- Do you?]

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