Tag Archives: Joe Biden

How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”. In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, InTrade, Joe Biden, prediction markets, primary indicators, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets | 5 Comments

On the question of the candidates’ qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of the people polled said Joe Biden is qualified while only 42 percent said Sarah Palin is qualified.

Posted on October 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CNN poll – - Technical Note: If you don’t see the right end of any of these huge static charts, do right-click on the image, and open the chart in another browser tab. Source: InTrade Technical Note: Our advice for … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Politics, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 6 Comments

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections. – The bad point is that, at … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayth, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Joe Biden, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US politics, vice president prediction markets, VP prediction markets, VP-candidate prediction markets, Wall Street Journal, WSJ | 3 Comments

Joe Biden is a liar —a big-time liar.

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- He performed a spectacular act of plagiarism. – He misled people about his education and academic credentials. Joe Biden is a jerk. Kathleen Sebelius would have made a better Democratic vice presidential nominee.

Posted in Ethics, Politics | Tagged Democratic vice presidential nominee, Joe Biden, Politics, US politics | Leave a comment

Why didn’t you bet with the crowd, then? You could have made a killing at the time when Joe Biden was under 50.

Posted on August 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Caveat Bettor, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Joe Biden, prediction markets | 7 Comments

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Posted on August 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii. [...] Mr. Obamaâ€™s decision had as much … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Bo Cowgill, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, Tom Snee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 1 Comment

JOE BIDEN ON RUDY GIULIANI: “Thereâ€™s only three things he mentions in a sentence —a noun, a verb, and 9/11. Thereâ€™s nothing else! Thereâ€™s nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. Heâ€™s genuinely not qualified to be president.”

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Excellent.

Posted in Humor, Politics | Tagged 9/11, Humor, Joe Biden, Rudy Giuliani | Leave a comment

Never trust a politician.

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTade, InTrade, Joe Biden, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | Leave a comment

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

â€œFriend — I have some important news that I want to make official. Iâ€™ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.â€ Some blogger says his wife is fantastic. New York Times portrait of Joe Biden. UPDATE: Barack Obama‘s speech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Caveat Bettor, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Democratic VP nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, primary indicators, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP nominee, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 2 Comments

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