Tag Archives: electoral college
Why all the prediction market people should wish that the arcane “electoral college” system and the complex Democratic primary system never get to be overhauled and simplified.
For Christ’s sake, don’t simplify the US voting system.
Prediction markets have value in complicated situations —only.
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State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction
Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities.
I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
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Contents
a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state [...]
2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.
PollTrack:
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I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am heavily betting on Barack Obama for Florida and North Carolina. There will be a good payoff, next [...]
2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections
Folks,
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
- Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets.
- Additionally, the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) is going to publish many posts per day about the US elections (scheduled for [...]
2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
Any chance to have a bigger chart widget that goes into feed readers?
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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]
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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. – [Feed readers: [...]
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets
Prediction market analyst Lance Fortnow in an e-mail to me:
Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’t keep up. In past elections the markets were much better than the polls within a few days [...]
Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map
Interesting blog post from Lance Fortnow on the VP prediction markets. (I will soon blog about those.)
InTrade – Electoral Markets Map
Their brand-new widget:
Get the <a href=”http://www.widgetbox.com/widget/electoral-markets” mce_href=”http://www.widgetbox.com/widget/electoral-markets”>Electoral Markets</a> widget!
More charts of prediction markets on our “predictions” webpage.
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By [...]
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