Tag Archives: electoral college

Why all the prediction market people should wish that the arcane “electoral college” system and the complex Democratic primary system never get to be overhauled and simplified.

Posted on December 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

For Christ’s sake, don’t simplify the US voting system. Prediction markets have value in complicated situations —only. -

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Politics | Tagged electoral college, United States Of America, US politics, US voting system, USA | 2 Comments

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

PollTrack: – I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, electoral college, event derivative markets, Florida, HubDub, InTrade, North Carolina, polls, PollTrack, prediction markets, US politics | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US elections prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, GOP, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor | 3 Comments

Any chance to have a bigger chart widget that goes into feed readers?

Posted on September 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- – This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Charting System, Software | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, Electoral Markets .com, electoralmarkets.com, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Politics, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, US states | 3 Comments

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Posted on September 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, IEM, Independents, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets

Posted on September 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction market analyst Lance Fortnow in an e-mail to me: Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’t keep … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Lance Fortnow, polls, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, state polls | 7 Comments

Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map

Posted on September 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Interesting blog post from Lance Fortnow on the VP prediction markets. (I will soon blog about those.) InTrade – Electoral Markets Map Their brand-new widget: Get the <a href=”http://www.widgetbox.com/widget/electoral-markets” mce_href=”http://www.widgetbox.com/widget/electoral-markets”>Electoral Markets</a> widget! More charts of prediction markets on our “predictions” … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References, Software | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral markets, electoral markets map, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Lance Fortnow, market data, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction markets, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, Yiling Chen | Leave a comment

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