Category Archives: X Groups

Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.

Mike Linksvayer: Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.

#1. X Groups Predictify is unveiling a two-way interaction between their prediction platform and the blogs out there. FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System

By how much will Porsche’s profit be higher than its turnover? Interesting new prediction market at HubDub. – What I have just realized is that the most sociable of the HubDub traders (like the one who created the question above) … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.

- Freakonomics: July 22nd, 2008 4:47 pm I am producing the Freakonomics documentary, so I am particularly interested to read the comments to Prof. Strumpf’s guest post. Koleman properly identified the likely reasons for FRKON’s summer swoon on the Hollywood … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

NewsFutures do *NOT* favor event derivative management by traders.

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures: January 29th, 2008 at 7:25 am Another important difference with NewsFutures (where people have been “trading news” in 2000) is that hubdub doesn’t give away any prizes to performers. That, perhaps, is a direct consequence of … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub

This is a follow-up post. — Ken Kittlitz (the head of the Foresight Exchange) to me: You’re correct, the owner of an FX claim must find a different FX player to act as the judge. This is largely to ensure … Continue reading

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An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

Peter McCluskey: Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ADAM SIEGEL OF INKLING MARKETS VALIDATES CHRIS MASSE’S CONCEPT OF X GROUPS.

All the reference material posted by Inkling in its marketplace area is awesome. High quality. Very interesting read. In the section highlighted below, Adam Siegel explains how important is the relationship between the blogs and the prediction markets. Which is … Continue reading

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Community Prediction Markets = X Groups

InTrade-TradeSports has had a long-lasting relationship with the blog Real Clear Politics. As soon as I created Midas Oracle, in the fall of 2006, one of the first things I blogged about was that relationship between InTrade and this political … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Contract Statements, X Groups | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG AND THE JATROPHA PREDICTION MARKET AT POPSCI PPX NOW FORM AN X GROUP.

Wow. History-making moment, folks. Steve Levitt: September 5, 2007, 9:33 am When Dubner Talks, People Listen By Steven D. Levitt Well, at least the folks at the PopSci Predictions Exchange listen. Last week Dubner blogged about Jatropha, a weed that … Continue reading

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