Category Archives: X Groups
Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.
Mike Linksvayer:
Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for which I did set up a contract. It is just as well that I didn’t — [...]
Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.
#1. X Groups
Predictify is unveiling a two-way interaction between their prediction platform and the blogs out there.
FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post —without leaving the blog.
FROM PREDICTIFY TO [...]
HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System
By how much will Porsche’s profit be higher than its turnover?
Interesting new prediction market at HubDub.
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What I have just realized is that the most sociable of the HubDub traders (like the one who created the question above) can drive many of their “friends” to their newly created prediction market(s). I used to think that only [...]
Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.
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Freakonomics:
July 22nd,
2008
4:47 pm
I am producing the Freakonomics documentary, so I am particularly interested to read the comments to Prof. Strumpf’s guest post.
Koleman properly identified the likely reasons for FRKON’s summer swoon on the Hollywood Stock Exchange. While I cannot provide a definitive explanation for precisely which of those reasons was most influential, I can offer [...]
Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub
This is a follow-up post.
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Ken Kittlitz (the head of the Foresight Exchange) to me:
You’re correct, the owner of an FX claim must find a different FX player to act as the judge. This is largely to ensure that at least more than one person thinks the claim is worth having.
With Inkling Markets and HubDub, at [...]
An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade
Peter McCluskey:
Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts
I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market maker (using an algorithm described near the end of http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifextropy.html). The subsidized market maker ought to provide [...]
Community Prediction Markets = X Groups
InTrade-TradeSports has had a long-lasting relationship with the blog Real Clear Politics. As soon as I created Midas Oracle, in the fall of 2006, one of the first things I blogged about was that relationship between InTrade and this political blog. I see it as the first installment of my concept of “X Group” (the [...]
THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG AND THE JATROPHA PREDICTION MARKET AT POPSCI PPX NOW FORM AN X GROUP.
Wow. History-making moment, folks.
Steve Levitt:
September 5, 2007, 9:33 am
When Dubner Talks, People Listen
By Steven D. Levitt
Well, at least the folks at the PopSci Predictions Exchange listen.
Last week Dubner blogged about Jatropha, a weed that could spearhead a biofuel revolution. At the end of his post, he urged the PopSci Predictions Exchange to launch a [...]
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