Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Politics

CONFUSED: Nate Silver’s marshmallow politics – [VIDEO]

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 9, 2010 — Leave a Comment
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BetFair (a prediction exchange) + ComRes (a pollster)

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 3, 2010 — Leave a Comment

They are jointly operating a new website, focused on the next UK general election:
http://www.electionpredict.com/
As of today, the British GOP is set to win. We’ll see.

Also posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , ,

ClimateGate: How leftist scientists cooked the data on climate change to scare the hell out of people – [VIDEO]

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 27, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Here’s the report the US Senator is talking about in this video.

Also posted in Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ron Paul –> the good… and the ugly

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 24, 2010 — Leave a Comment

The Ugly:

The Good:

Also posted in The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Paul-Romney 2012

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 21, 2010 — Leave a Comment

“U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, a stalwart foe of government spending, won a blowout victory Saturday in the annual Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll.”

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Marginal Revolution’s Tyler Cowen = Political Pundit — [PREDICTIONS]

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 12, 2010 — Leave a Comment
Also posted in Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , ,

BARACK OBAMA’S ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARE CLOSY MONITORING INTRADE’S PREDICTION MARKETS.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 23, 2010 — Leave a Comment

An anonymous adviser to the President Of The United States Of America:
My perspective here has given me an unusual window into the looking-glass mirror of how things I see on the inside are interpreted on the outside.
The most vivid case in point is the recent policy announcements about implementing the Volcker ideas about separating investment [...]

Also posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 20, 2010 — Leave a Comment
Also posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 19, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Nate Silver:
There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions would tend to cluster around the 25 percent number), it is hard to know for sure.

Also posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 18, 2010 — Leave a Comment

6 scenarios
United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010

Also posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
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