Category Archives: Mechanism Designs
CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The readers of Midas Oracle are well aware of the (relative) performance of the prediction markets [...]
MicroSoft have patented the prediction markets.
Well, at least, one aspect of the prediction markets.
Uniited States Patent Application:
CONTINUOUS BETTING INTERFACE TO PREDICTION MARKET
Abstract
A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface which allows the user to understand a trade in terms of a bet. The interface also allows the user [...]
The Fox… and the Hedgehog
Emile Servan-Schreiber looks like the fox to me. He acknowledges a reality: the prediction market adoption problematic. (Leslie Fine is in the same boat.) Okay, but I want more proof. How come Inkling Markets administrators seem to be happy with MSR, then?
Adam Siegel is no hedgehog.
Addendum
Here is the definition of a fox (as opposed to [...]
Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software
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Leslie Fine of CrowdCast:
Chris,
As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and lack of interest in the usual fare led to a death spiral of disuse and inaccuracy. BRAIN was [...]
Simpler Input Mechanisms
I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or Leslie Fine (of Xpree/CrowdCast) who did implement MSR, and recently decided to move out to [...]
Smarter exchange mechanisms
The Pennock interpretation.
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