Category Archives: Market Liquidity

New Zealand’s election gag law suspends iPredict’s political prediction markets. — [LINKS]

Posted on November 25, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

- Election gags and efficient markets. – Election gag.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Politics, Regulations | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Exchange, exchanges, iPredict, iPredict New Zealand, laws, Market, markets, New Zealand, prediction market management, prediction markets, Regulations | Leave a comment

Post-Delaney InTrade experiences turmoil related to the debt ceiling prediction market. — [CHART + LINK]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

37 pages (!!) on the InTrade message board. Once again, one can question the professionalism of the InTrade execs and the usefulness of the prediction markets.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betting markets, debt, debt ceiling, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, prediction markets, US public debt | Leave a comment

Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Posted on May 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Scenarios.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged assassination, Barack Obama, bets, Betting, betting markets, bounce, death, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, killing, Nate Silver, Osama bin Laden, Politics, Prediction Journalism, prediction markets, Predictions, US politics | Leave a comment

InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: How do we know the Intrade price was not accurate? Well, the raid wasn’t just executed on a whim. It had been planned for quite some time. Therefore, the true likelihood must have been much higher than the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, scam, terrorism, terrorists | Leave a comment

InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, terrorism, terrorists | 4 Comments

British electors don’t want to change their electoral system. — [PREDICTION MARKET]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Question asked on May 5, 2011 (United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum): At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead? Here’s BetFair’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged AV Referendum, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, GB, Great Britain, Politics, prediction markets, Predictions, referendum, UK, UK politics, United Kingdom, United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum 2011 | Leave a comment

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, electricity, energy, event derivative markets, Fukushima, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Japan, Justin Wolfers, nuclear electricity, nuclear energy, nuclear energy plant, nuclear energy plants, nuclear power, power plant, power plants, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, traders | 1 Comment

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 6 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Right-click the chart to get the latest probabilities: NHK WORLD TV live on USTREAM. PREVIOUSLY: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Charting System, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Asia, bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, earthquake, electricity, energy, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Fukushima, Fukushima Nuclear Plant, IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency, InTrade, Japan, nuclear energy, nuclear power, nuclear power plants, prediction markets, risks, tsunami | Leave a comment

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 5 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: Upgrade to Level 6, here. Next: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, earthquake, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Fukushima, IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency, InTrade, Japan, prediction markets, tsunami | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi, The Return. – From Order Books to Belief Distributions.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | Leave a comment

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