InTrade floats Dominique Strauss-Kahns life. – [PREDICTION MARKET]

InTrade:

New Prediction Market: Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Tuesday, May 17, 2011

On May 16th 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared in New York City Criminal Court and was charged with two counts of a criminal sexual act in the first degree , first-degree attempted rape, first-degree sexual abuse, second-degree unlawful imprisonment, forcible touching, and third-degree sexual abuse. These seven charges are detailed in the criminal court complaint found HERE.

Intrade has opened a market for Dominique Strauss-Kahn to be found guilty of, or plead guilty to, at least one of the charges laid against him. This market can be found under Legal &gt- D. Strauss Kahn.

Market Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if:

- Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found guilty of at least one of the seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
–- Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to at least one of the seven counts

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if (including, but not limited to):

- Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found not guilty of all seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
– All counts are dropped
The case is dismissed
- A mistrial is declared (for all counts)
- Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to lesser charges only as part of a plea agreement (please note that if Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to any of the original charges as part of plea agreement the contract will expire at 100)

This market covers only the charges covered in the complaint. Any other criminal or civil cases will not be considered when expiring this market.

The contracts will be paused if possible when a verdict is about to be announced and will be expired as soon as that decision is made public.

The end date on the contract is for indication purposes only. This date may be extended if necessary.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account –- Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.

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Video link.


Tristane Banon et AgoraVox: retour sur une…- par AgoraVox

British electors dont want to change their electoral system. – [PREDICTION MARKET]

Question asked on May 5, 2011 (United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum):

At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

Here’-s BetFair’-s prediction market on the YES side:

Tipped by Mike Robb.

Cold Fusion Prediction Markets – [HISTORY]

In April 1989, Robin Hanson created this prediction market:

By 1/1/91 a &lt-1 liter device will have generated over 1 watt of power output more than input from room-T fusion, including amortized power to create/separate components.

I suppose that InTrade will be willing to float E-cat contracts. We’-ll see.

Justin Wolfers pumped up the shitty, play-money prediction exchange run by InTrade/WSJ.

Shit here.

The fake-money exchange is pitiful, and to have a professor pumps up that shit is pitiful too.

UPDTE: That was the 2008 election. Fortunately, this crappy exchange is dead. Here’-s Freakonomics on the 2010 election.

BetFair set a price range for its initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange at $17.48 to $22.25 a share, valuing its equity at up to $2.35 billion.

“-The wide price range, for an equity value between ?1.16 billion and ?1.48 billion, reflects mixed views on the company’-s prospects for growth in countries with strict regulations on gambling, such as the U.S., and for its new financial-trading platform, LMAX.”-

BREAKING: The CFTC approves MDEXs real-money prediction markets on movie box office.

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“-In a 3-2 vote, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday afternoon approved a contract created by the company Media Derivatives that would allow traders to bet on the gross receipts that a movie pulls in during its opening weekend.”-

UPDATE:

- NYT

- WSJ

- Felix Salmon

- “-If we approve these types of things on the arguments posed in favor of them, we could be approving things like death pools or terrorism contracts, something Congress surely never intended.”-

- Hollywood Reporter

- AP

- CNBC

- AFP

Pre-IPO BetFair silences its PR chief Mark Davies.

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Mark Davies:

The reason is that with my job at Betfair having recently changed so that I have responsibility for regulation but no longer for our public positioning, I have been asked not to blog about industry and company issues. Rather than stop writing completely, I have only been publishing things which cannot be construed to be a Betfair view.

Why did BetFair demote a brilliant spin doctor?

Makes no sense at all. Absurd.