Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Exchanges & Markets

Betfair the “Masonic Lodge”

The relationship between William Hill and the betting exchanges has not been a good one. On January 29, 2003, David Harding on the subject of Betfair’s impact on the the over-round said; “Some racecourse markets now return overrounds of only 1.2 to 1.3 per cent per runner. That is not sustainable. I cannot have a [...]

CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.

Interview

Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.

BetFair’s Mark Davies is (finally) blogging.

Two years ago, I wrote that the man should go blogging. Done. Finally.
A view from opposite Harrods –> http://markxdavies.blogspot.com/
Truly interesting. Bookmark. Subscribe. Read.
Via Crowded Voice

How to bet on Smarkets

http://smarkets.com/

New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France

http://predipol.newsfutures.com/ — play-money
And Today’s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…
«Du coup, assure Émile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la même manière, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’info pour ensuite s’en servir dans ses recommandations d’investissement.»

Betfair’s Liability in relation to its software failing

As somebody who likes to “back and lay” on UK horse racing, I was more than annoyed, when having placed a bet on a UK horse race, Betfair’s software malfunctioned, meaning that I was unable to lay off my bet as was my intention.
To those of us that engage in backing and laying, the result [...]

Experts trading on prediction markets

Chris Hibbert:
Top tier sports, national elections, and Hollywood releases are all arenas in which all the information one might analyze is already pretty much public. There are many methods for predicting these outcomes, and I wouldn’t argue that prediction markets have a huge advantage in these arenas. The markets where I expect PMs to have [...]

BARACK OBAMA’S ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARE CLOSY MONITORING INTRADE’S PREDICTION MARKETS.

An anonymous adviser to the President Of The United States Of America:
My perspective here has given me an unusual window into the looking-glass mirror of how things I see on the inside are interpreted on the outside.
The most vivid case in point is the recent policy announcements about implementing the Volcker ideas about separating investment [...]

In spite of Robin Hanson’s pumping them up, very few companies use enterprise prediction markets.

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McKinsey:
While respondents tell us that tapping expert knowledge from outside is their top priority, few report deploying prediction markets to harvest collective insights from these external networks.
#FAIL

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Sharad Goel:
In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that the relative advantage of prediction markets is remarkably small. [...]
Given that sports and entertainment markets are [...]