Prediction markets about science and technology

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NewsFutures + Science &amp- Vie (a science magazine published in the F country)

In French, alas, but I am sure Emile would lend the same technology to some English-speaking magazines in the U.S. or the U.K. that would want to open the same kind of prediction exchange for science.

InTrades prediction markets on skyscrapers

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– the opening date of the Freedom Tower in New York-

– the opening date of the Chicago Spire.

I like that. I remember requesting this kind of prediction markets two years ago, to another exchange &#8212-to no avail.

Exchanges should create much more delivery date prediction markets &#8212-about buildings, cars, software, etc.

HubDub: If you sign up a friend and he/she wins a prize, then you win the same prize.

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HubDub – March Madness 2009:

*Prediction Market Technology – Experience March Madness Like Never Before*

March 16th: Anticipation is running high for the 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s
Basketball Championship (popularly known as March Madness) with the first
round tipping off on March 19th.

On the web users can watch all the live action for free on
Additionally, there are no shortage of sites offering brackets on which you
can predict who will win all 63 games in the tournament.

Hubdub however has launched a prediction competition with a difference.
Unlike a bracket, Hubdub players can trade predictions through out the
tournament and in the later stages during the actual games themselves.
Additionally, not only are all the usual match up questions but players will
also receive daily questions like “Will any team hit a 3 pointer with 5
seconds or less to win?” and “Will President Obama attend any March Madness

The Hubdub Predict-a-thon is free to enter and is offering $500 in cash
prizes to its top players. On top of that, if you introduce a friend to the
competition and they win, then you receive the same amount.

NewsFutures Election Contest – Actually Win Something

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Yesterday, NewsFutures launched a new contest on the US election, focusing on swing states. A way for us to beta test some new technology and some new UIs (this blogger/trader seems to like it so far.) As a reward, we&#8217-re offering X$5,000,000 to the best traders. That&#8217-s play money, but it&#8217-s significant play money: if you had X$5,000,000, you&#8217-d be ranked 21st on NewsFutures today, and you could trade your play money for a $100 Amazon Gift Certificate, not just bragging rights.

Check it out:
It&#8217-s free, it&#8217-s fun, and you may actually win something

ProTrade vs. Sports Derivative Exchange

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I asked Chris Hibbert whether they are &#8220-exchanges&#8221-.

Chris Hibbert:

It looks like it from a cursory glance. In both cases, you can buy and sell, and the prices appear to be set by market interactions rather than institutional fiat. They both have a feedback mechanism based on “dividends” produced by on-field performance. ProTrade has a sophisticated formula that takes into account the players’ contribution to a winning season. SDX seems to base their dividends purely on wins and losses. The latter is easier to understand, and probably closer to the way most fans think about things. I think ProTrade is justified in believing they are closer to capturing the individual athlete’s contribution.

There’s also the difference in betting on players or teams. I think both might be helped by offering bets based on both players and teams. But until they cover hockey, I won’t spend a lot of time there. I don’t want to have to start following one of the major sports in order to bet in these play money markets.

ProTrade has a market maker, and SDX uses book orders.

External Links:

– ProTrade

– Sports Derivative Exchange

– Zocalo (the open-source software for enterprise prediction markets, coded by Chris Hibbert)

UPDATE: The SDX co-founder has a comment.

Reuters partner with HubDub.

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Once again, we out-scoop Freakonomics and Overcoming Whatever.


Reuters partners with Hubdub to put a presence on the prediction market site.

Reuters is pleased to announce their new presence on Hubdub, the virtual prediction market site.

Hubdub allows users to trade predictions with virtual money on the outcomes of breaking news stories and future events, with approximately 2 million Hubdub dollars traded daily. As part of a new, dedicated Reuters section within the site Reuters generates questions for users to trade on based on the latest breaking news and ranging in topics from the current credit crunch to the 2008 presidential election. Reuters questions are already among the most popular on Hubdub.

Additional tools and resources are also included to help build a Reuters community within the site, including a &#8220-friends&#8221- application, comment capabilities, links to the top Reuters stories of the day and Reuters market widgets, found at

Finally, because Hubdub prediction markets aggregate thousands of trades, the site often produces accurate forecasts on the likelihood of future events. Beyond weighing in on the outcome, users are able to reference the site for up-to-the-minute information on the public&#8217-s predictions about breaking news from Reuters.

HubDub partnership program:

Become a Partner

Partner with Hubdub to engage and grow your community. Enrich your content for your users by adding forecasts, and drive traffic by creating a branded presence on Hubdub.

As a partner you can:
* Create branded questions on Hubdub for anyone to predict, with links back to your relevant content
* Sponsor and link to particular questions and get links back to your relevant content
* Get a branded profile page to highlight your questions and display a relevant news feed from your site or blog
* Post questions, graphs and forecasts as widgets alongside your content to engage users
* It&#8217-s all completely free!

– News sites – engage your readers with forecasts they return to
Bloggers – get novel content to enrich your posts and drive relevant traffic
– Special interest sites – give your community informative forecasts and attract new users

Become a partner – it&#8217-s free!

Create an account on Hubdub and drop us an email asking to become a partner. Once we review your application we&#8217-ll upgrade your account to a partner one. Easy!


iPredict New Zealand

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iPredict New Zealand

iPredict New Zealand is a legal, real-money prediction exchange organizing real-money prediction markets. They can also provide support for enterprise prediction markets.

iPredict New Zealand has been declared a futures dealer by the New Zealand Securities Commission, which means iPredict is treated as an exchange under securities law.

Best wishes to them.


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