Category Archives: Analysis (Market Efficiency)

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Interdependence of Prices and Gold

Posted on June 26, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

I gave a talk on Thursday night at the New York Investing Club meeting. The basic points: Gold does well when real rates of return are low. Real rates describe the price of gold much better than inflation alone. This … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Finance, Financial Markets, Money, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Book Review: The Limits of Transparency

Posted on May 16, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

Jacqueline Best’s The Limits of Transparency is carried by sensible concerns on the tension between efficiency and stability, the tension between promoting employment and stable money, and the political implications of seemingly neutral economic policy. However, while economists, market participants … Continue reading →

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Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”… 9:57 into: Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Sharad Goel: In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt – Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged , , , , , , , | 24 Comments

“It is their velocity that we should put to work.”

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Remember what the great Chris Masse said? Nate Silver applies the approach to Bobby Jindal. Note that accuracy is out of the picture (since 2012 is far away) —as I said, the velocity argument is impermeable to inaccuracy and backfires. … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets react to polls.

Posted on December 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls – (PDF file) – David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti – 2008-12-XX In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 U.S. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , | 13 Comments

The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run.

Posted on November 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

[...] I conclude those four contracts did not provide valuable information about how the [2008 US presidential] election would affect the world. Dixit Peter McCluskey.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment