So what effect did the UK‘s first ever televised prime ministerial debate featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have on the political betting market?
Before the debate, the betting market on Betfair regarding who if anybody would secure an overall majority was as follows; Conservative Majority 1.75; No Overall Majority 2.68; Labour Majority 17.0.
After the debate, the market was betting as follows: Conservative Majority 1.83; No Overall Majority 2.54; Labour Majority 17.5.
Consensus opinion held that the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg had performed best, and, there is little doubt that this debate represented a significant turning points as regards the publics perception of him.  If he performs as well in the next two debates, this will have serious implications as regards the probability of a hung parliament.  Accordingly, one would anticipate that the odds on No Overall Majority are likely to shorten further ahead of the actual election.
Wow, were the odds really at 1.83 / 2.54 for conservative / no overall majority just earlier today? Wish I had been paying attention.
Current odds: 2.90 / 1.66 for conservative / no overall majority.
Yes, I wrote this on Thursday night; not sure why it has taken so long to appear. You all could have made a fortune.
Current Odds
No Overall Majority: 1.73
Tory Majority: 2.66
Labour: 28
Niall, I saw your “pending” post yesterday only.
Next time, e-mail me once you have finished your draft.