“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Posted on March 20, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Ron Paul

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Prediction Market Chart

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ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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8 Responses to “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

  1. Paul Hewitt says:
    March 20, 2010 at 5:28 PM

    The man is a politically dishonest idiot. Let’s see, 45 years ago, Congress was unable to make an accurate prediction about something that would occur 25 years hence? True, they didn’t have prediction markets back then, but still. Perhaps if there had been fewer (or shorter) wars, the costs would have been lower. There are hundreds of factors that influenced that particular outcome. Companies cannot predict *their* sales from one *quarter* to the next. Why would you expect Congress to be any better?

    You have to ask why Ron Paul would be quoting a 45 year old projection of an outcome that is, ahem, 20 years old. There is only one reason, and it is decidedly political.

    This guy should have his Twitter account revoked!

  2. Chris F. Masse says:
    March 20, 2010 at 5:57 PM

    His point seems to be that the Congress people are lying on the true cost of this bill. Sounds a good point to me.

    • Paul Hewitt says:
      March 20, 2010 at 6:30 PM

      It would be a good point, if the example were less than 45 years old! If he was serious, he would have backed it up with *current* estimate inaccuracies. My point is that we shouldn’t be giving these propagandistic comments a public forum.

  3. Chris F. Masse says:
    March 21, 2010 at 5:07 AM

    He is a libertarian. He is the constitutional right to make a libertarian point. :-D

  4. Chris F. Masse says:
    March 21, 2010 at 5:09 AM

    “It would be a good point, if the example were less than 45 years old!”

    His point is that history repeats itself. Governments always lie about budget predictions. End up in deficit. Debt. Inflation. Etc.

  6. Jason Ruspini says:
    March 21, 2010 at 9:54 AM

    How much of the Medicare shortfall was simply not accounting for longer lifespans, information that was essentially available in 1965? This is why I say that the entitlement crisis is a failure to predict *the past*.

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