Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…
9:57 into:
Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…
9:57 into:
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It would be nice to see his proof of manipulation in these (and other) markets. I believe him, but Robin Hanson will ask for proof. Otherwise, a few of Robin’s papers, concluding that manipulators *improve* market accuracy, will need to be filed in the recycling bin.
And, of course, is Futarchy is f***ed, not just retarded.
Why would you expect objectivity in Max’s ramblings? I mean he stated here with a straight face that McCain manipulated his own contract.
These markets are thin though and since positions can be hedged to some extent in healthcare stocks, well, Y > X in the parlance of the Moldbug.
But a strategy of “maybe it will stick to the wall” isn’t quite journalism.
Little to No Evidence of Market Manipulation on Intrade
http://www.daily-chuck.com/2010/03/little-to-no-evidence-of-market.html
There was an “attack” on this market last night beginning around 2am in New York. Someone marked the close below 40, Smoking gun.. didn’t even require large volume.