Monthly Archives: April 2009

A good blog that might be of interest to the prediction market people (you)

Market Design – by professor Al Roth (the world’s expert in market design) I have already plugged this blog, but will do it yet another time because of its many gems —some of which could be applied to prediction markets.

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“Building an exchange is challenging. Be patient. It is complex. It will take time. The retail derivatives market has a huge future.”

Who said that? Russell Andersson of HedgeStreet… and just two months later HedgeStreet did belly up. So I can safely publish the fact that Russell Andersson is not a seer —without risking any “class-action” defamation suit. From Deep Throat, we … Continue reading

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Does Russell Andersson misrepresent himself on LinkedIn?

His LinkedIn profile describes him as “currently” holding a VP position at HedgeStreet: – Reality Check: – The “management team” page of the HedgeStreet website lists Yossi Beinart (President and CEO), Peter C. Lee (COO), and Timothy McDermott (General Counsel). … Continue reading

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P.T. Barnum said, “All publicity is good publicity”. Is that true?

Bryan Caplan: If you want to get all the publicity you deserve, make sure you’re friendly with the enemies of your enemies. Almost all publicity can be transformed into good publicity, but you can’t do it alone. I‘ll try to … Continue reading

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“Most graduate programs in American universities produce a product for which there is no market (candidates for teaching positions that do not exist) and develop skills for which there is diminishing demand (research in subfields within subfields and publication in journals read by no one other than a few like-minded colleagues), all at a rapidly rising cost (sometimes well over $100,000 in student loans).”

“Abolish tenure”…

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Get Rich Quick Thanks To InTrade

Start with 50 bucks, and very soon, you become rich like Croesus. Is that a coordinated marketing campaign?

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Swine Flu Prediction Markets

will there be confirmed cases of swine flu on every continent by july 1? – SWINE FLU 2009: How many states will report cases of Swine flu by the end of May? – Will the Mexican/U.S. swine flu (A/H1N1) grow … Continue reading

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McKinsey on prediction markets?

I exchange one McKinsey (if you have it) against one Forrester and one Gartner. Any taker? Contact moi.

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The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated.

Gartner ranked the benefits given by software for enterprise prediction markets as “moderate” (look up the 3rd line of the 3rd column): – Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file): – California Institute of Technology economist … Continue reading

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Great leaders’ personality type

EpiCenter: [...] was self-centered, imperious, arrogant, unyielding, and flawed in myriad other ways — but more importantly, he had genuine passion and the crucial ability to instill it in others. This made him far more compelling and ultimately more successful … Continue reading

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