Monthly Archives: April 2009

Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software

- Leslie Fine of CrowdCast: Chris, As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and … Continue reading

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There is an apetite for socially valuable predictions and forecasts, out there.

That post had no original content. Just the republication of the HubDub prediction market charts. (I will update that post with new links to InTrade and IEM.) P.S.: I will show you the InTrade charts, later on. But as you … Continue reading

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

You should unsubscribe to Midas Oracle .COM.

You should unsubscribe to Midas Oracle .COM —that is the other blog that I have just killed. It now redirects to Midas Oracle .ORG (this blog), which explains why the subscribers of both Midas Oracle .COM and Midas Oracle .ORG … Continue reading

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Betfair and the notion of a global exchange

Greg Nichols, Betfair’s Managing Director of sporting affairs, has acknowledged that the company has aspirations for a global betting exchange that would include the US market. “Ultimately, it is our ultimate objective that we would like to see the betting … Continue reading

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Simpler Input Mechanisms

I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or … Continue reading

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Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Journal of Predictions Markets: Special Issue on Corporate Applications

The current issue of the JPM focuses on the use of prediction and idea markets within firms. The papers stem from the Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets held at the Kauffman Foundation on 1 November 2007. The issue … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Vertical Media vs. Prediction Markets vs. Mass Media

Let’s rank institutions according to who has dealt first with the swine flu: Vertical media and local media — starting Tuesday, April 21, 2009 Mass media, news aggregators, and user-created prediction markets (a la HubDub) — starting Friday, April 24, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises – TED 2009

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Google users are digging around to get the probability of a Swine Flu pandemy.

- Interestingly, the results are very different with “swine flu predictions”. Predictify is above HubDub in both cases, you’ll notice. – External Links: – Google Trends – Google Insights for Search Previously: Swine Flu Prediction Markets

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