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Monthly Archives: April 2009
Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software
- Leslie Fine of CrowdCast: Chris, As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs
Tagged Betting, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence mechanisms, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, enterprise prediction markets, information aggregation, internal prediction markets, Leslie Fine, market designs, Market Scoring Rules, Mechanism Designs, MSR, polling, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, trading, Xpree
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There is an apetite for socially valuable predictions and forecasts, out there.
That post had no original content. Just the republication of the HubDub prediction market charts. (I will update that post with new links to InTrade and IEM.) P.S.: I will show you the InTrade charts, later on. But as you … Continue reading
You should unsubscribe to Midas Oracle .COM.
You should unsubscribe to Midas Oracle .COM —that is the other blog that I have just killed. It now redirects to Midas Oracle .ORG (this blog), which explains why the subscribers of both Midas Oracle .COM and Midas Oracle .ORG … Continue reading
Posted in Midas Oracle Administration
Tagged Midas Oracle, Midas Oracle .COM, Midas Oracle .ORG
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Betfair and the notion of a global exchange
Greg Nichols, Betfair’s Managing Director of sporting affairs, has acknowledged that the company has aspirations for a global betting exchange that would include the US market. “Ultimately, it is our ultimate objective that we would like to see the betting … Continue reading
Simpler Input Mechanisms
I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or … Continue reading
Vertical Media vs. Prediction Markets vs. Mass Media
Let’s rank institutions according to who has dealt first with the swine flu: Vertical media and local media — starting Tuesday, April 21, 2009 Mass media, news aggregators, and user-created prediction markets (a la HubDub) — starting Friday, April 24, … Continue reading
Google users are digging around to get the probability of a Swine Flu pandemy.
- Interestingly, the results are very different with “swine flu predictions”. Predictify is above HubDub in both cases, you’ll notice. – External Links: – Google Trends – Google Insights for Search Previously: Swine Flu Prediction Markets