The current issue of the JPM focuses on the use of prediction and idea markets within firms. The papers stem from the Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets held at the Kauffman Foundation on 1 November 2007.
The issue aims to provide an introduction to those new to the field as well as to describe some of the new and exciting applications within firms. The line-up, listed below, includes a real who’s who of companies using internal markets. There is also a commentary on each article written by some of the leading academics.
I hope many of the papers will be of interest to some of the readers here. And please do get in touch with me if you have questions or comments on the issue.
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Link to the special issue (JPM, Volume 3, Number 2)
Table of contents:
Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets
Author: Strumpf, Koleman (Univ of Kansas)
The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO
Author: Lavoie, Jim (Rite-Solutions)
The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization
Author: Hall, Art (Center for Applied Economics)
Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE’s Imagination Markets
Authors: Spears, Brian; LaComb, Christina; Interrante, John; Barnett, Janet; Senturk-Dogonaksoy, Deniz (GE)
The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective
Author: Ottaviani, Marco (Kellogg School)
Hanson’s Automated Market Maker
Authors: Berg, Henry; Proebsting, Todd A. (Microsoft)
On Market Maker Functions
Author: Hanson, Robin (George Mason)
Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider’s Experience
Author: Siegel, Adam (Inkling)
“The Emergence of Prediction Markets within Business Firms: A Skeptical Perspective from an Intrigued Academic.”
Author: Rhode, Paul W. (Univ of Arizona)
Private Prediction Markets and the Law
Author: Bell, Tom W. (Chapman)
Comment on Bell Article
Author: Litan, Robert E. (Kauffman Foundation and Brookings Institution)
$32.09 each article? That’s pretty sad. Who is going to read these?
I once made a completely useless contract on this http://home.inklingmarkets.com/stocks/346/trades/new
New versions
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/stocks/65142/trades/new
http://www.hubdub.com/m40638/Will_the_Journal_of_Prediction_Markets_be_in_the_Directory_of_Open_Access_Journals_before_201111
Maybe they should publish some articles for free on the Web, and sell the others. Or maybe they should publish all their articles for free —maybe it will create a buzz and it will help them sell dead-tree copies.
In any case, the model they have right now is dubious, at the age of the Internet.
P.S.: Does the Journal talk about non-trading information aggregation mechanisms? It should, since NewsFutures (the pioneer) and CrowdCast (the VC-funded) have abandoned market mechanisms (a la Hanson).
I remember reading that this was peer-reviewed, but I don’t know to what extent it is actually reviewed. There was one article a year or two back that seemed to contain some misunderstandings about risk aversion. This lack of clarity implied that play-money rank-order markets should not suffer risk-seeking distortions. Perhaps it was reviewed but no-one had an incentive to point this out.
Jason:
These articles were definitely peer reviewed: two rounds plus per paper, hence the delay in publication relative to the conference.