Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: February, 2009

Site Notice

For SEO reasons, the links to the external resources on prediction markets that were previously listed on the “BEST” page have been moved to the “PREDICTIONS” page.
Thanks for the attention.

6 years is long enough for an assessment of the prediction markets.

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets:
“Yet to take off,” however, does not equate to “bad idea.”
Adam,
The prediction markets went mainstream in 2003 (with PAM) and in 2004 (with “The Wisdom Of Crowds”). That’ll soon make up for 6 years of exposure under the sunlight. That’s a period long enough for us to be able to assess [...]

Mat Fogarty to David Perry: “My ‘Chief Scientist’ beats yours.”

Leslie Fine is “Chief Scientist” of CrowdCast, now —formerly “Xpree”.

Inkling Markets to The Economist: “The trend is up, fellas.”

Inkling Markets:
“Yet to take off,” however, does not equate to “bad idea.” The facts are that uptake among companies has been increasing year over year, more business schools are covering prediction markets in their curriculum, industry analysts have begun to track progress in the space, and an increasing number of management consulting firms, market research [...]

Jim Rogers on Max Keiser’s The Oracle

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HubDub: Death markets are now banned.

HubDub:
Hubdub does not permit markets on the impending death (for example how or when) of people, or markets considered to be death tolls, unless expressly approved at the discretion of the Category Editor. This rule will apply even in the context of a mainstream news story. This rule applies to all markets created after February [...]

Volume = (News Rate) * (Intrinsic Interest)

Sounds true to me.
What do our research scientists think?
Would you re-formulate it?

How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole

The danger of vendor conferences without any editorial line: It backfires against the whole prediction markets industry —big time.

I warned my readers many times against the vendor conferences organized by the San Francisco man. He is so desperate that he invites anybody who will pronounce the word “prediction” and “markets” in the same paragraph. Many [...]

The Center for Prediction Markets, the biggest in the Chinese language, will try to call Taiwan’s presidential election on March 22, 2009.

NewsWeek
Via research scientist David Pennock of YooPick fame.
His Majesty attracts our attention on the fact that the article discusses (briefly) both play money and real money.
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Center for Prediction Markets – Taiwan

HubDub: “Meta-markets, you said? Take that, Panos.”

How many states will Hubdub get right in the 2008 Presidential election?
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How well will Hubdub predict the winner of the 2008 Presidential Election?
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Will this Question Correctly Predict Whether the HD Community Will Successfully Predict the Outcome of this Event?

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