Panos Ipeirotis:
Actually, I would like to see for such collective events (senate races, oscars etc), to see a “meta-market” in each exchange:
“How many events is our exchange going to guess correctly?”
In principle, it should be possible to price correctly such contracts using the reported probabilities and their dependencies. This should give some extra attention to the fact that markets are not supposed to get everything correctly to be accurate.
Panos Ipeirotis’-s blog [*] and website
[*] Great name (”-Behind The Enemy’-s Lines”-) —-but where does the name come from?
Behind Enemy Lines
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0159273/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behind_Enemy_Lines_(film)
What about the notion of timescale Panos…you seem to leave it out of your model…..???
Niall: That’s why I suggest a market, to allow traders to estimate these values for the end of the contract before the market expires. Doing the price estimation at expiration should be rather trivial. So traders can try to come up with their estimates ahead of time. Now, it *is* possible to directly incorporate time into the model but this is rather technical to fit this margin (see the basic idea at: http://behind-the-enemy-lines……on_20.html)
Chris: The name is kind of tongue-in-cheek to indicate the typical attitude of engineers/scientists towards people in business. (I am a “Computer Scientist in a Business School”).
Boss: I love my job
thanks
As I mentioned before, Panos is onto something very important. That is, multilevel reputation systems.
@Niall – Yes, They should be continuous algorithms.
“Panos is onto something very important.”
Applications?
http://www.linkedin.com/groupA…..gid=152133
On metamarkets:
From the election:
http://www.hubdub.com/m13738/H…..l_election
http://www.hubdub.com/m11492/H…..l_Election
A derivative-derivative market:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market….._4865/view
Behind Enemy Lines
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0159273/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behind_Enemy_Lines_(film)
What about the notion of timescale Panos…you seem to leave it out of your model…..???
Niall: That’s why I suggest a market, to allow traders to estimate these values for the end of the contract before the market expires. Doing the price estimation at expiration should be rather trivial. So traders can try to come up with their estimates ahead of time. Now, it *is* possible to directly incorporate time into the model but this is rather technical to fit this margin (see the basic idea at: http://behind-the-enemy-lines……on_20.html)
Chris: The name is kind of tongue-in-cheek to indicate the typical attitude of engineers/scientists towards people in business. (I am a “Computer Scientist in a Business School”).
Boss: I love my job
thanks
As I mentioned before, Panos is onto something very important. That is, multilevel reputation systems.
@Niall – Yes, They should be continuous algorithms.
“Panos is onto something very important.”
Applications?
http://www.linkedin.com/groupA…..gid=152133
On metamarkets:
From the election:
http://www.hubdub.com/m13738/H…..l_election
http://www.hubdub.com/m11492/H…..l_Election
A derivative-derivative market:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market….._4865/view