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Tag Archives: Oscars 2009

Conditional Likelihood Loss

Posted on March 3, 2009 by admin
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– Nate Silver: 0.6032

– InTrade: 0.3699

InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009.

Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?

Posted in Analysis (Data) | Tagged accuracy, conditional likelihood loss, HubDub, InTrade, Nate Silver, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets | Leave a reply

BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by admin
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Mike Robb is quick to roar victory for the quasi-accurate BetFair predictions on the Oscars 2009.

PS: I credit the accuracy to both the information aggregation mechanism (BetFair&#8217-s prediction exchange) and the BetFair traders.

Posted in Analysis (Data) | Tagged BetFair, Oscars 2009, prediction markets | 1 Reply

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2008 US presidential elections accuracy Barack Obama BetFair Betting betting exchanges betting markets CFTC Collective Forecasting collective intelligence corporate prediction markets enterprise prediction markets event derivative exchanges event derivative markets event derivatives Finance financial markets Forecasting Gambling Google HubDub Humor internal prediction markets InTrade John Delaney Justin Wolfers laws marketing Midas Oracle NewsFutures ntubbbb Politics polls prediction exchanges prediction markets Predictions private prediction markets real-money prediction markets Regulations Robin Hanson TradeSports US economy US politics US presidential elections wisdom of crowds

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2008 US presidential elections accuracy Barack Obama BetFair Betting betting exchanges betting markets CFTC Collective Forecasting collective intelligence corporate prediction markets enterprise prediction markets event derivative exchanges event derivative markets event derivatives Finance financial markets Forecasting Gambling Google HubDub Humor internal prediction markets InTrade John Delaney Justin Wolfers laws marketing Midas Oracle NewsFutures ntubbbb Politics polls prediction exchanges prediction markets Predictions private prediction markets real-money prediction markets Regulations Robin Hanson TradeSports US economy US politics US presidential elections wisdom of crowds

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