Read the new comments on yesterday’-s thread.
Since the crowd is so wise, would one make money by betting systematically on the InTrade favorites (say, once they reach 50)?
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Monthly Archives: August 2008
Is Koleman Strumpf a provocator?
Joke. 
One week later, the debate is still raging under his post.
New comments from David Pennock and Jason Ruspini.
I like when people argue with each other. It generates pageviews. Commenters frenetically download that webpage to see whether their opponents have added something.
WeatherBill C.E.O. David Friedberg hopes to persuade [!?] the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) to change the requirement that currently limits weather derivative traders to accredited investors with a minimum net worth of $1 million.
Hummmmmmmmm…- Quite a bold ambition. I’-m very surprised by his statement. Is he naive?
Via our chief economist Michael Giberson.
CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrades prediction markets.
Via our good friend Jason Ruspini.
CNBC video + CNBC video #2
– Please, put that on YouTube, and then give me the YouTube URL. I’-ll embed the video in another post.
– Who is that guy that they will interview later on, Jason??? [UPDATE: Serge Ravitch]
My observations:
- Quite upbeat. Almost an advertisement for InTrade.
- No mention whatsoever that InTrade is illegal in America.
- On the website, they call InTrade a “-political futures market”-.
- The InTrade critic was Barry Ritholtz. They just showed his blog. He wrote that the trading on InTrade is “-pitifully”- small.
- The first prediction market analyst they want to hear is InTrade CEO John Delaney. The second is professor Justin Wolfers. And that’-s all.
- Steve Forbes asked whether “-this thing”- (InTrade) predicted Joe Biden “-weeks ago”-. The answer is that InTrade predicted Joe Biden some days ago.
- Joe Kerner put an emphasis on liquidity, whereas the emphasis should have been on the market as the mechanism that delivers a collective verdict.
UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)
UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube
The second CNBC video on InTrades prediction markets is up and running.
CNBC video + CNBC video #2
In both segments, the appearance of Justin Wolfers is a nuclear disaster. They cut him ultra short. Maybe because of his strong Australian accent, I don’-t know. But the end result is bad. It’-s a pity. Justin Wolfers would have had many interesting things to say.
PS: InTrade people, please, put that on YouTube and tip me when it is done, so I can embed those videos.
UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)
UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube
Why didnt you bet with the crowd, then? You could have made a killing at the time when Joe Biden was under 50.
The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. – Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.
The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii.
[…] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his conclusion that the Delaware senator was “-a worker.”-
The important information in the NYT piece is that Barack Obama personally called governor Bill Richardson “-late last week”- to announce him that he was not considered anymore. That’-s around the time the Joe Biden rumor began to have more weight in the media circles —-see the InTrade chart below.
Bo Cowgill, back in May 2008 (when I started to act as a prophet of doom):
This is dumb. Cover them if something interesting happens. Maybe your theory will turn out to be wrong. Anyhow: Although the decision is made in secrecy, the Presidential nominees have a number incentives which we have plenty of information about. Specifically:
* They want someone who will balance their tickets in terms of geography, race and class.
* They want someone who will help with weak areas of their campaigns.
* They want someone who will be a good campaign surrogate — giving good speeches and attacking the opponents effectively.
* They want to avoid a VP who will de-motivate or offend the base.
* They want to avoid someone with a bunch of skeletons in the closet such as angry ex-wives, out-of-wedlock kids, etc.
* Etc etc.
Anyhow, I don’t see any reason to ignore these markets in case something interesting happens. I read Midas Oracle so that I don’t *have* to read a whole bunch of other websites!
Bo Cowgill was on the right track, now that I think of it —-in a society where everything leaks out.
On the opposite of the spectrum, Tom Snee was too much extreme in his view:
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’-s or John McCain’-s head.
Justin Wolfers was more measured.
So, Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers are the winners, on that one.
I was partially wrong. I am a bit too extreme, sometimes. (Did someone else notice that? ) I need to learn more about…- granularity.
–
PS: On the Republican side, now…-
Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee?
JOE BIDEN ON RUDY GIULIANI: There’s only three things he mentions in a sentence -a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There’s nothing else! There’s nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. He’s genuinely not qualified to be president.
Excellent.
Barack Obama + Joe Biden – THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).
“Friend —- I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”
Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.
New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.
UPDATE: Barack Obama’-s speech + Joe Biden’-s speech
–
I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. insider) is unpopular and gaffe prone. Plus, that choice shows that Barack Obama is insecure when it comes to foreign policy. An emphasis on the economy and, thus, on a successful gubernatorial experience would have been better.
Kathleen Sebelius was the one to pick. She is my vice president. (And Ron Paul is my president. )
–
I have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama’-s decision process. The chart above obviously shows that the Joe Biden narrative leaked out to reporters was beamed out for a purpose: testing the Obama-needs-a-VP-who-is-strong-in-foreign-policy argument, and letting the Press do the final vetting on gaffe-prone Joe Biden.
InTrade CEO John Delaney (along with the HubDub and BetFair people) will now brag on his marketing material that his prediction exchange did forecast Joe Biden as the Democratic vice president nominee.
What’-s bad in all that (other than I have an egg on my face [*] ) is that we won’-t have a public debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators, and how that conditions the accuracy of the prediction markets.
[*] I have an egg on my face, but Caveat Bettor has a whole omelet on his.
Never trust a politician.
