Video on InTrade’s political prediction markets
Chris F. Masse April 9th, 2008
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Via Yahoo! Research scientist David Pennock (pictured in the video, with, in the background, a whiteboard full of complex mathematical equations, which impressed the young New York Post journalist)… this New York Post video (embedded just below).
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John Delaney’s statement that people (did he say “pundits” or “people”?…) were predicting a John Kerry victory in November of 2004 (while InTrade was predicting that George W. Bush would be re-elected) should be backed by supportive evidence. It’s difficult to quantify the chatter in newspapers, magazines, TVs, blogs, etc. Did someone do that for the 2004 presidential elections? I know that the polls were favoring Bush, slightly, but I don’t know whether the political buzz was quantified scientifically, really.
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- Analysis (Meta) , Exchanges & Markets , Explainers , Prices & Probabilities
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