Monthly Archives: March 2008

Could a statistical reputation system built on top of Amazon’s Mechanical Turk be of any help to the prediction market firms?

- I leave the mic to David Pennock so that he’ll explain to you what this is all about. (Be sure to check Panos Ipeirotis‘ comment on Lukas Biewald‘ blog post.) [UPDATE: Panos has just made it into Read & … Continue reading

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Heartthrob Alec Baldwin discusses the global impact of the subprime crisis, as seen by ex-HSX Max Keiser. What’s next? Britney Spears disserting on Robin Hanson’s futarchy?

- Alec Baldwin Max Keiser – - On related news, our international Max Keiser is brewing a prediction market TV show, as I told you in January 2008. Like Nostradamus, he will predict all kinds of cataclysms. We are trembling … Continue reading

Posted in Finance, Humor | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

How will AMEX avoid the fate of HedgeStreet, an exchange with similar products?

Asks Mark Longo. But did that same Mark Longo ask the hard questions to HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson, when he interviewed him in the Summer of 2007, two months before the HedgeSteet immolation? Of course, not. Building an exchange is challenging. … Continue reading

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2008 hurricane binary option contracts

- MondoVisione: Hurricane binary option contracts will pay the full contract value ($10,000) to the buyer if the combined CHI for all of the hurricanes during the season equals or exceeds a certain value (strike); otherwise, it pays nothing and … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

73% of journalists [*] sometimes or always use blogs in their research.

[*] = newspaper, magazine, TV, radio, and web journalists Editors & Publishers Via Henry Blodget (who is hilarious, as always) – Implications for the field of prediction markets (InTrade-TradeFair, BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, HSX, NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, etc.): The P.R. arm of … Continue reading

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Information that is shared, but not sought, is now perceived as natural.

The New York Times – Implications for the field of prediction markets (InTrade-TradeFair, BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, HSX, NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, etc.): Publish the “Share This“ widget on each of your prediction market page, to make it easier for your customers to … Continue reading

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BetFair multi-millionaire laughs openly about how he is going to fool the Court of Justice.

- Father-of-5, BetFair co-founder Andrew Black: From one court case to another, and I’m back in court today to appeal against my driving ban. I will of course look very sad and contrite and tell the court that I’ve learnt … Continue reading

Posted in Ethics | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

BetFair is as innocent as a lamb… but their P.R. people can’t tell you that at this time. Here’s why.

- Dear Midas Oracle readers, Besides the facts about BetFair Malta’s combo market maker operating on the multiples (which Midas Oracle informed you about back in January 2007), you may have heard the rumor that BetFair UK (in HammerSmith, London) … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Smarkets is a Web-based, person-to-person betting exchange platform built on the fusion of social networking and trading technology.

Still-in-beta Smarkets blog (the “about” page): Smarkets is a web-based, person-to-person betting exchange platform built on the fusion of social networking and trading technology. Unlike traditional methods of betting, online betting exchanges remove the bookmaker by allowing users to bet … Continue reading

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Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.

Our Master Of All Universes moans that the Free World’s private and public decision makers rarely or never ask him for advice —even though he sits on many “Boards Of Advisors” (like NewsFutures‘ one), which are, by definition, set up … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Humor, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment