How Decision Markets Work (with emphasis on InTrade) – by Robin Hanson

No GravatarVIDEO – (it&#8217-s a Guatemala-based website) – 2007-10-24

I have clicked on the second blue link, on that webpage, and Window Media Player opened, and now I am watching The Master Of All Universes lecturing a group of politics students&#8230-

The main difficulty in developing efficient public policies is misinformation and false beliefs. The traditional information institutions are the media academics, and informal communications. These institutions have limitations in providing reliable, efficient, useful and enough information to make decisions. Speculative markets base their profits on the prediction of price patterns and are proving to be an efficient information institution. Betting markets have been better and faster predictions than experts because manipulators develop more accurate information. Therefore, speculative and betting markets have to become the central institution on political institutions in order to have effective public policies.

Click here to read the chapter &#8220-Decision Markets for Policy Advice&#8221-.

Great. But the second part of the video is more painful to follow. The students&#8217- questions are sometimes inaudible.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Mat Fogarty’s Xpree needs a mini Chris Hibbert.
  • Did you know that Real Clear Politics (a political news aggregator in bed with InTrade) is now owned by Forbes?
  • Easter Egg made in Mathematica
  • MIDAS ORACLE POWER: People googling about BetFair’s new bet-matching logic are automatically directed to our group blog. BetFair’s SEO can return to the locker room.
  • David Pennock, a respected expert in prediction markets and market design, discusses some aspects of BetFair’s new bet-matching logic.

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