A good resume, in the field of prediction markets, should mention and link to Midas Oracle, of course. You, too, could be part of the gang. Join us today.

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Last year, nobody would give the first fig about a &#8220-Michael Giberson&#8221-. He was insignificant. Now, with the orbital price of oil, Mike becomes hot, all of the sudden. I hope he&#8217-ll mind some energy prediction markets, one day, when he has time.

How to join Midas Oracle and how to blog with us here&#8230-

How to connect with Midas Oracle on LinkedIn&#8230-

How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French -and how Ed Murray became BetFairs best friend (NOT A HOAX).

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Michael Giberson (professor of economics and chairman of our scientific advisory board):

Actually, I would expect the change to improve liquidity, but the real surprise for Ed Murray is that other than his liquidity argument, I pretty much agree with him this time.

It is a better scheme than before, as the exchange will match traders’ bets more efficiently and offer price improvement when available.

As Betfair observes (and Murray notes) the downside is for traders who make a bet in error, and now find the more efficient market has matched the bet before it could be withdrawn. If this is a frequent problem for a trader, perhaps they need to exercise a little more care at the keyboard. But as the Befair announcement indicates — and this time Ed Murray is repeating the Betfair company line! — at least there is the possibility that the trader will be matched at a better price than he would have otherwise.

Robin Hanson wants to rule the world -just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.

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Our Master Of All Universes moans that the Free World&#8217-s private and public decision makers rarely or never ask him for advice &#8212-even though he sits on many &#8220-Boards Of Advisors&#8221- (like NewsFutures&#8216- one), which are, by definition, set up to provide advice &#8212-or so he thought, at inception. How come CEOs and heads of states are not imploring him for advice to help them run the word, he asks. He blogs that advisers are probably paid primarily for the prestige value that they lend to the company.

Which leads me to realize that I pay zero French franc for having economist Michael Giberson on our Scientific Advisory Board, which is quite about what his prestige is worth in the field of prediction markets, as of today. :-D That might change in the future, though &#8212-especially if I continue to flatter him publicly in posts like this present one. He might suffer from ego inflation and charge me for using his so-called &#8220-prestige value&#8221-. All economists, be damned. They are as greedy as the people they study.


The New York Times:

Carol Kauffman, an assistant clinical professor at Harvard Medical School: &#8220-When you’re really engaged in a hobby you love, you lose your sense of time and enter what’s called a flow state, and that restores your mind and energy.&#8221- [&#8230-] &#8220-That positive emotion builds your cognitive and social skills. If you follow your bliss [*] for a little while, it really gives you a surge of energy.&#8221-

Dr. Gabriela Cora, a psychiatrist who is managing partner of the Florida Neuroscience Center and president of Executive Health and Wealth Institute: &#8220-Making time for enjoyable activities stimulates parts of the brain associated with creative and positive thinking. You become emotionally and intellectually more motivated.&#8221-

Gail McMeekin, a psychotherapist and owner of Creative Success: &#8220-Any time you take a break from routine, you develop new ways of thinking&#8221-.[&#8230-] &#8220-You have to do some market research first and make sure you could earn a living doing your hobby. You also take the risk that making your hobby your career [*] will take all the fun out of it.&#8221-

[*] His &#8220-bliss&#8221- right now is to chronicle the Writers Guild America&#8217-s 2007 strike on Inkling Markets and Midas Oracle .COM.

[**] Told him 10 times!!!!!!!

Michael Giberson

RECOMMENDED READING: RGGI auction design flaw: Separate sealed-bid auctions for substitute goods poses needless risks for bidders – by Michael Giberson (at Knowledge Problem)

&#8220-RGGI&#8221- is short for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (North East and Mid-Atlantic). They want to create a multi-state cap-and-trade program with a market-based emissions trading system. Economist Michael Giberson has found [links to Crampton&#8217-s paper that highlights] &#8220-one serious flaw that threatens the efficiency of the auction: they proposed to auction two goods which are asymmetric substitutes in separate, simultaneous sealed bid auctions.&#8221-

Mike, are there lessons here to learn when it comes to prediction market designs?


Psstt&#8230- The best sentence that Mike has ever told me is this one (from memory):

Maybe there&#8217-s a method in your madness.


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Hot-Linking InTrade’s Advanced Charts
  • Prediction Markets on FaceBook
  • BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price
  • Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
  • Technology Futurism
  • Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
  • Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition