Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):
Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. […] .. [“stress test” = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]
Past shortfall doesn’-t predict future shortfall. […]
Bayesian is necessary but not sufficient. […]
If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you. Put yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones. […]
Go to parties! If you’-re a scientist, you will chance upon a remark that might spark new research. […]
Also, see Stan Jonas’- 2 takes on FOMC.