The prediction market funnel should be put in the right position.
The prediction market funnel is upside down, right now. It’s only once people (arriving from the top, in the schema below) get to understand and adopt the arcane mechanics of the betting exchanges that they can put to use their knowledge of news events (sports, politics, finance, etc.) –activities represented by the wide area at the bottom of the picture– and get to enjoy the whole news gathering and event futures trading experience.
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It should be the other way. Prediction market journalism should help people digest news events (sports, politics, finance, etc.) first, because that’s what most people are only interested in, and then introduce them gradually (step by step) to the betting exchanges. Even with a low conversion rate, prediction market journalism can be hugely efficient since we start from the wider reservoir possible (the society at large).
