At The Eisenthal Report, market manager David Eisenthal provides an update on the Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market that he set up at Inkling.
At various times, Rep. Barry Finegold (D – Andover), Rep. Jamie Eldridge (D – Acton), and Niki Tsongas have all led the field.
As the election approaches, however, the market seems to have settled on a consensus prediction: Niki Tsongas. … [Tsongas] is now priced at $68.50 per share in this market. This means that this market says that Tsongas has a 68.5% chance of winning the primary on Tuesday. In a distant second place is Jamie Eldridge, ….
It seems to this observer that this likely reflects the reality of next Tuesday – Niki Tsongas is likely to be the Democratic nominee in the October 1 special election to fill the congressional seat. We will see soon enough.
In the day and a half since Eisenthal posted, Tsongas has moved to 85.
