Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.

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#1 out of 10 Steve Jobs’ thoughts. Via Nate Kontny of Inkling Markets. (By the way, George Tziralis, who, too, has a mini blog, has moved it to a new URL.)

Previous: Is GMU professor Robin Hanson an inventor, an innovator, or… a complete loser??

Robin Hanson posted this comment:

I’ll take credit for creating some ideas the world has found useful, but I have completely failed both the market test and the academic test. That is, I can’t convince any business to let me join them to deliver my ideas at scale, and I can’t convince any top journal to publish my ideas.

The comment was made on this Mike Linksvayer’s blog post.

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