2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago: Prediction Markets, anyone??

Posted on April 18, 2007 by Chris F. Masse
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Next: Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

Next: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

Next: Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market.

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Why Chicago Tribune’s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets’ Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School’s Cass Sunstein, Consensus Point’s David Perry and HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson are totally incompetent prediction market analysts.

Those five incompetents would be better off minding their statement before singing like idiotic canaries.

Those five blablating incompetents are selling the idea that prediction markets to determine the next venue for the 2016 Summer Olympics is a great idea and would be accurate.

Here’s what happened to the Paris 2012 event derivative, my boys:

Paris 2012

Chart courtesy of TradeSports-InTrade.

Here’s what I wrote:

TAKEAWAY: It’s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee —whether it’s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.’s Casino Advisory Panel).

Paris had the best case, but the Olympics aristocrats chose London anyway.

Same picture for the UK’s Super Casino: Blackpool was the BetFair favorite (62.5%), but the committee picked up Manchester.

Please, Chicago Tribune’s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets’ Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School’s Cass Sunstein, Consensus Point’s David Perry, HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson, tell the truth; don’t sell fantasy.

And if you are completely incompetent, then leave your seat to someone else.

Next: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

Next: Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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One Response to 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago: Prediction Markets, anyone??

  1. Chris. F. MasseNo Gravatar says:
    April 19, 2007 at 5:57 AM

    2016 Summer Olympics

    Wednesday, Apr 18, 2007

    The Exchange has listed contracts on which region of the world will play host to the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. These contracts can be found under Current Events — Olympic Games.

    A further group of contracts on which particular city will host the games will be listed in September when official applications close for potential hosts.

    The contract rules are as follows:

    A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a venue located in the region specified in the contract is selected as host of the 2016 Olympic Games.

    A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the venue selected as host of the 2016 Olympic Games is not located in the region specified in the contract.

    Expiry will be based on the official announcement of the host due to be made by the International Olympic Committee on 2nd October, 2009.

    For expiry purposes India, Turkey and Middle Eastern countries (excluding those in Africa) will be considered part of Asia, and Ccentral American countries are considered part of South America.

    Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances.

    The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

    Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4

    Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

    http://www.intrade.com/news/news_124.html

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