Prediction Market Accuracy — Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers talk back to Barry Ritholtz.

Robin Hanson:

If you can find prediction market prices that you think are wrong, you should expect to make money by trading in those markets. And doing so will increase their accuracy.

Justin Wolfers:

[...] Yes, markets are fallible. But I still prefer the least fallible forecasting insitution. And in many domains, that appears to be prediction markets.

Barry Ritholtz’s bone of contention: Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Previous: Barry Ritholtz takes aim at Chris Masse.

Finally, a good fight …involving all the right people. … Hey, dear reader, whom do you side with??