How to publish a high-quality prediction market blog

#1. Locate it as a sub-website of your domain name.

#2. Rant against the anti-internet gambling laws of your country. (((He forgets YouBet. And he makes it like the CFTC’s approval of HedgeStreet was like the 12 Works Of Hercules —huge exaggeration. And he completely misunderstood the relationship between InTrade and the CFTC —there isn’t any.)))

#3. Round up the regulatory proposals. (((Tom Bell is forgotten. And not a word on the profitability of the prediction exchanges under each regulatory umbrella. And his purity line of distinction between exchanges and bookies is blurred now that BetFair goes into multiples.)))

#4. Pay attention to details (site feed, user interface).

#5. Flatter your competitor by eulogizing his invention. (((Smart idea. That way, you hedge against your competitor trashing your own invention.)))

#6. Plug your home-made state-by-state map of political probabilities for the last US elections.

#7. State the truism that evaluating probabilistic forecasts based on a single data point is impossible.

#8. Plug your prediction market conference.

#9. Hint, very subtly, that reforms are necessary at your office. (((But do not apply the reforms to your self. Still continue using My Web 2 instead of Delicious.)))

#10. Plug your prediction market conference —in case readers missed the plug #1; link more widely, this time.

#11. Thank everyone who thanked you for inviting them at your Press conference (disguised as a prediction market conference).

#12. State that evaluating probabilistic predictions is very tricky —in case readers missed it the first time.

#13. Branch out in other forecasting techniques.

#14. Branch out in an area you have no deep knowledge of, and your readers no interest in —except your main competitor.

#15. Say something provocative about the efficient market hypothesis, and be sure to expose some flaws in your reasoning —that way some inspiration-free bloggers will spot them and link to your piece (it’s called “link bait”).

#16. Flatter your employer. (((Pay rise time is soon —he’ll probably get a bit more than inflation.)))

#17. Tell that big bloggers have linked to you —but don’t tell who tipped them.