TradeSports-InTrade prediction markets on Bush approval ratings
Chris F. Masse September 26th, 2006
Donald Luskin notes that the text of this contract has a glitch.
- Probably, a TradeSports employee using a template has forgotten to delete an old text pertaining to US election prediction markets, while filling the “Rules” tab. (The webpage for the text of the contract is OK, though.)
- What’s interesting: This contract institutes a blog (Real Clear Politics) as the exclusive source of information used for contract expiry. RCP computes “poll averages” (Approve/Disapprove), which will be the basis of TradeSports’s judgment on the bet, on D day. The key, in my view, is whether traders will trust this mechanism. Volumes are low, as of today; we will see.
- Another factor is this: Which advanced indicators could traders trust to predict future Bush approval ratings? Oil price? S&P?
- For more information on prediction markets with continuous variables, see Chris Hibbert’s recent blog post.
Thanks for your attention,
Addendum: The glitch on the “Rules” tab has now been corrected. (Time stamp: Wednesday, September 27, 2006 - 11 AM EST)
Addendum 2: On the “Rules” tab, the text pertaining to US elections is now… back. (Time stamp: Wednesday, September 27, 2006 - 2 PM EST) Here’s the full text of what’s on the “Rules” tab. In bold, the portion of text pertaining to US elections. Following is the text of the contract pertaining to Bush approval ratings.
QUOTE
Politics
Election Contracts
0-100 Candidate/Political Party A wins: The expiry will be 100 if Candidate A wins the specified election/nomination and 0 if he/she does not.
The Result:
The expiry price is determined by the final result of the election as determined by the authorized Board of elections or similar regulatory body.
For Political Party contracts any tie will be broken by the authorized Legislative procedures that are used to break ties.
Postponement:
If the election is postponed until another date, the contract expiration date will be moved according. Similarly if the final count is delayed the contracts will remain open until the result from the final count is officially declared.
Presidential Job Approval Rating Contracts
A contract will expire at 100 if the published job approval rating is on or above that specified in the contract. If not then the contract will expire at 0.
These contracts will be expired based on President Bush’s job approval rating figure as published on Real Clear Politics (Click Here).
The RCP Average - Approve figure published on this site will be used for expiry purposes.
The contract will be expired once the RCP Average Approval figure for date range including November 7th is available.
If George W. Bush ceases to be President of the United States before expiryof these contracts then all contracts will become void, all trades unwound and all trading fees refunded.
Due to the nature ofthis contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 -Unforeseen Circumstances
Please contact us with any queries by emailing help@tradesports.com
Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.
UNQUOTE
Addendum 3: The portion of text pertaining to US elections, and which has nothing to do with the Bush approval ratings contract, has now been re-deleted from the “Rules” tab, if you can believe it. (Time stamp: Thursday, September 28, 2006 - 12 PM EST) I wonder whether it is an error from a human operator or a software glitch. I sent an e-mail yesterday to CMO Matt Bonner; no reply yet.
Addendum 4: The faulty text is back. It’s a software glitch, probably. (Time stamp: Thursday, September 28, 2006 - 8 PM EST)
- Exchange / Market Genesis , Exchanges & Markets , Market Contract Statements , X Groups
- Comments(0)
