How to join Midas Oracle -and why.

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How To Become A Midas Oracle Author

The Uniqueness Of Midas Oracle

  1. We publish the best mutant ideas.
  2. We link out a lot to external resources.

How To Join Us

#1. We are interested in recruiting you as a volunteer, if you have an interest in prediction markets (and collective intelligence). Be sure to read and understand (:-D ) the ABOUT, MISSION, CODE OF CONDUCT, and TERMS OF USE webpages. Guest blogging on Midas Oracle can help you get traffic to your website and increase its PageRank.

#2. You may either register yourself as a comment author, disclosing your full name (or not), or send your application (as a comment author or as a post/page author) to Chris Masse &#8212-see our CONTACT page. When you register, do create your account using your first name and last name, such as &#8220-john-doe&#8221-. The login is at the bottom of the sidebar.

#3. Registered members of Midas Oracle will receive an e-mail newsletter once in a while &#8212-only when important circumstances warrant. (There are e-mail options on your profile page, inside the Midas Oracle system, which allows you to opt out of mass e-mails, if you really need to.)

#4. To have your status upgraded from comment author to post/page author, contact Chris Masse.

#5. To have your name removed from Midas Oracle, send your resignation to the blog administrator (Chris Masse), and he will delete your profile from the blog database.

How To Publish Your Ideas On Midas Oracle

How To Publish

How To Comment

Velocity is such a potent argument. Why dont we use it more, for Christs sake?

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I am re-reading a 2007 scientific article from Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo:

– Ask The Market – Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. – (PDF)

Here is what I see on the frontpage:

– &#8220-one or two weeks in advance&#8220-

– &#8220-even up to five weeks in advance&#8220-

Marketing-wise, velocity is a much more potent argument than the argument on accuracy. Who cares about an added accuracy of +2.7% (and that&#8217-s debated)? If any, that&#8217-s peanuts.

You cannot make a case against velocity. Impossible.

UPDATE: Put the PDF link in the address box of your browser (as opposed to clicking on it, or right-clicking on it).

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/region_focus/2007/spring/pdf/feature1.pdf

BuddyPress will power the communities of our prediction exchanges.

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BuddyPress, part of the WordPress eco-system.

More on BuddyPress.

Download this post to watch the video, if you read this in a feed reader (such as Google Reader).

Possible users of BuddyPress:

– BetFair – TradeFair

– InTrade – TradeSports

– HedgeStreet

– Betdaq

– Hollywood Stock Exchange – Cantor Exchange

– HubDub

– NewsFutures

– Inkling Markets

– etc.

The best way to raise awareness for your prediction market startup is to create a long-term relationship with the Midas Oracle blogger and other web acquaintances (a.k.a. online friends).

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Loic Le Meur:

[…]

#2 – Do not pick a PR person, be the spokesperson of the company.

The best person to represent the company is not a PR person and even less an external one. It is YOU. You, the founder, you the CEO. Look at Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Richard Branson, they are the PR machines. Does Michael Arrington himself need a PR person to represent himself get TechCrunch known? If you launch your startup, you need to be the one representing it because you have the vision and the passion. If you are shy, get over it. Get training. Try a daily video for example :)

#3 – Participation is NOT marketing.

The most important asset that a startup CEO has or should build is his community. It has nothing to do with marketing. [It] took me 8 years since I started blogging in 2003 to have a community and it is no marketing. It is about sharing every day thoughts, tips, advise, learnings with the community. It is about a continuous dialog with thousands of friends that will gladly help you building the company if you do not consider it as marketing. Of course, you can talk about your products and it may be good marketing at times but it should not be artificial. Marketing fails in communities.

[…]

#6 – Do not see bloggers and journalists as target either, they will ignore you.

Make sure that the PR team DOES NOT RESEARCH individual preferences for contact before they reach out, they will tell you what everybody knows about them and you will contact them in the most boring way possible. Take bloggers. Everybody tries to pitch Scoble and Arrington. They are tired of the same formatted boring pitches that come to them exactly the same. They are my friends and if I had tried to pitch them like hell they would have never have. Relationships with journalists and bloggers are the same as real life. They take years. Approaching them artificially with a strong sales pitch is the best way to make sure these relationships will never happen.

#7 – Do not measure success and traffic from PR.

It&#8217-s like if you tried to measure your relationships with your friends! Build strong links with your community, learn from them everyday, enhance your product. If you get coverage from the smallest blogger go and comment to thank him. Do not be obsessed by numbers and results, it is long term relationships that matter.

Excellent.

When I read Loic Le Meurs post, I thought to myself, &#8220-Nigel Eccles read that post months before I did.&#8221- :-D

Worlds #1 finance blogger withdraws all his money from InTrade… and blogs about it -detailing his negative customer experience to his thousands of Wall Street readers.

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Market Movers:

Dec 3 2008 5:52PM EST
The Problem With InTrade

I recently withdrew money from an InTrade account I&#8217-ve had for some years. The total cost of withdrawing the money was $53.10: A $20 fee to InTrade for &#8220-processing the bank wire&#8221-, a €10 ($13.10) wire-transfer fee to National Irish Bank, and a $20 fee to Bank of America, the intermediary bank via which the money arrived in my Citibank account. If Citi had charged their customary $25 incoming wire fee, the total would have been $78.10.

You need to have a very large balance at InTrade, or an incredibly successful trading strategy, to make trading there worthwhile if it costs the best part of $80 just to withdraw your money. And prediction markets need a critical mass of users, otherwise they die. InTrade, for one, can count me out.

[Felix Salmon]

Posted: Dec 03 2008 6:24pm ET
I&#8217-ll definitely use the check option next time &#8212- but there&#8217-s no indication on their website as to which one is cheaper, and I stupidly thought that a wire transfer would be cheaper than printing and posting a check.
By Felix [Salmon]

Posted: Dec 04 2008 04:46am ET
PayPal will not process transactions to online gambling sites (including Intrade) from the US. After the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act none of the payment providers will process these transactions, that is why you are stuck with check and wire transfers.

I expect that Antiguan sports books offer free withdrawal because they have much higher margins than Intrade and therefore can absorb the costs elsewhere.
By nigeleccles [Nigel Eccles of HubDub]

Previously: Why did John Delaney shut down TradeSports?

Previously: The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won&#8217-t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.

Previously: on TradeSports death – on InTrade&#8217-s viability

The one thing I enjoy every Monday morning

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As a prediction market aficionado, what lights me up are stories about&#8230- (of course)&#8230- how the prediction markets are assessing important news. The HubDub blog publishes, every Monday morning, a post that rounds up the 5 most prominent (that&#8217-s subjective) news stories of the week, with the prediction market charts, so we can spot which outcome is the more likely, for each issue.

I find this weekly newsletter addictive. I read it with attention each Monday. It is simple, short, but well done and effective.

I wish InTrade, BetFair, and NewsFutures would publish such a prediction market blog.

At inception, I created an Internet usability category, and, since, I have published many Jakob Nielsen stories. Many wondered why I would bother. Now, the Midas Oracle readers can understand why.

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These traders are talking down the newly redesigned Hollywood Stock Exchange website.

[They guy above has misspelled, two times. He meant: “unusable“.]

Previously: #1 – #2#3#4

UPDATE: Traders talk on Twitter about HSX.

Thanks to the HubDub guy for the tip.