Will Inkling Markets Abandon Ruby On Rails, One Day?

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Question.

UPDATE: Rebuttal + More info on Ruby on Rails.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts” -a.k.a. event derivative markets, event futures markets, betting markets, bet markets, prediction markets

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Via professor Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth (one of the top 5 economists studying prediction markets), the CFTC:

Release: 5493-08
For Release: May 1, 2008

CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts”

Washington, DC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is asking for public comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.

During the past several years, the CFTC has received numerous requests for guidance involving the trading of event contracts. These contracts typically involve financial agreements that are linked to events or measurable outcomes and often serve as information collection vehicles. The contracts are based on a broad spectrum of events, such as the results of presidential elections, world population levels, or economic measures.

“Event markets are rapidly evolving, and growing, presenting a host of difficult policy and legal questions including: What public purpose is served in the oversight of these markets and what differentiates these markets from pure gambling outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction?” said CFTC Acting chairman Walt Lukken. “The CFTC is evaluating how these markets should be regulated with the proper protections in place and I encourage members of the public to provide their views.”

In response to requests for guidance, and to promote regulatory certainty, the CFTC has commenced a comprehensive review of the Commodity Exchange Act’s applicability to event contracts and markets. The CFTC is issuing a Concept Release to solicit the expertise and opinions of all interested parties, including CFTC registrants, legal practitioners, economists, state and federal regulatory authorities, academics, and event market participants.

The Concept Release will be published in the Federal Register shortly- comments will be accepted for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.

Comments may also be submitted electronically to [email protected]. All comments received will be posted on the CFTC’s website.

WOW.

UPDATE: Eric Zitzewitz tells me that comments are sought 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. So, the deadline for commenting will be somewhat around June 30, 2008.

Great WordPress Plugin Of The Day

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Cross-Linker by Jan Hvizdak

  1. Write the words InTrade or BetFair in your post, and the plugin will automatically add the appropriate web links.
  2. Of course, the plugin won&#8217-t mess with your already, manually embedded links.
  3. Generally speaking, it won&#8217-t mess with anything &#8212-it is highly customizable.
  4. The links appear in your feed &#8212-few of the other plugins in this category can do that.
  5. Deactivating the plugin won&#8217-t delete your stored links.
  6. You can backup your stored links.
  7. You can even import the links from your blogroll. (I haven&#8217-t tested that, yet, but will do soon.)

I have tested all the WordPress.org plugins in this category, and Cross-Linker (from Jan Hvizdak) is the best ever.

Recommended for prediction market journalism (or else).

I&#8217-m Chris Masse and I approved this message. :-D

Mathematically speaking, as the saying goes, no one wins the lottery. Sports betting, by contrast, involves skill, and it is possible, although very difficult, to consistently win money on it. Sports bettors are closer to stock or commodities buyers than to people who buy lottery tickets. How much d

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Guess who said that in 2006.

Previously: BetFair&#8217-s Mark Davies on sports betting

The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd – Tuesday, May 20th, 2008 at 6:00pm – @ Bo Cowgills Alma Mater

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The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd – @ Stanford Business School, Stanford University, California, U.S.A. – 2008-05-20

&#8211-&gt- Predictify &amp- Cambrian House

Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)

HubDubs Nigel Eccles pinches Henry Blodgets nose (like trumpetist Miles Davies did for one of his musicians, on stage, one day), and the damn result of that, believe or not, is that the valuation of The Sporting Exchange (BetFair-TradeFair) drops from $5 billion to $3 billion. So, either Nigel shoul

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Nigel Eccles:

How did you forget yadda yadda yadda. [ Hilarious. :-D ]

Nice list, roughly makes sense but lots to disagree with (as you would expect). However one clear mistake is BetFair. They should be valued at $3 billion. They just did a recapitalisation which distributed 10% of the company in cash to shareholders (I got the check this morning). It was at a valuation of ?1.5 billion, so unless you are even more bearish on the exchange rate that works out at $3 billion.

Henry Blodget:

Thanks for the info on Betfair&#8211-that&#8217-s exactly the sort of concrete detail we&#8217-re especially looking for. We&#8217-ll see if we can confirm, and, if so, the valuation will drop to $3 billion.

And there&#8217-s another interesting comment, on the other page:

Insider:

why the gratuitous &#8212- and painfully ignorant – -swipes at the USA?

can&#8217-t you do your job without the silly &#8212- and, again, factually incorrect &#8212- morals lectureds and editorializing?

actually the U.K. is one of the few countries in the world where online gambling is essentially legal (though the U.K. still hasn&#8217-t sorted out all the laws it is creating to govern online betting)

many EU countries are literally at each others throats about how/when to tax internet gambling (principally because state-run lotteries are specifically carved out of the E.U. free trade agreements)

japan, australia and china have sever and horrible and harsh punishments for internet gambling

of course, pretty much all of the islamic world puts people to death or dismemberment for breaking qu&#8217-ran-ic law – and gambling is totally and utterly forbidden under the qu&#8217-ran

it is you who are &#8220-of arbitrary morals&#8221-. stick to blogging.

Insider&#8217-s comment sounds informed, but he/she should have avoided the nasty last line.

&#8220-Stick to blogging&#8221- is an insult I was served with, recently, (by a UK-based financial trader), so I can relate. But that&#8217-s never helpful. Educate that blogger, instead. You&#8217-ll get a better ROI, believe me.

BetFair Education has now a sub-site within the BetFair blog.

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BetFair Education

  1. The navigation is easy &#8212-see the menu on the left-side sidebar.
  2. I encountered only one 404.
  3. They are using Movable Type, and not WordPress, alas.
  4. The list of posts is comprehensive.
  5. They could have integrated their events with Google Calendar &#8212-just like the BetFair FireFox add-on does.
  6. The only bit of criticism I&#8217-d make is that their betting &#8220-knowledge&#8221-, which they want to &#8220-educate&#8221- their traders with, is not based on economic science. I think the next revolution in betting is science-based betting knowledge and science-based betting tips. That&#8217-ll happen outside of BetFair, I guess.

Both InTrade and NewsFutures are in the process of overhauling their website. We&#8217-ll see within the next weeks what they have to offer.