Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

Our good friend George Tziralis:

Markets bring people together, they sum up their information and transmit it through prices.

[A prediction market is] a tool which can aggregate the opinions and knowledge of the many and transform these into a meaningful result.

Markets arise as the ideal tool to crowdsource cognitive tasks and arrive at consensus results which are typically proven to be more accurate or correct than the opinions of the few experts, as suggested by both theory, experiments and practice.

–

Beautifully said.

AskMarkets

–

Michael Weiss of Gawker is misinformed about the wisdom of crowds.

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

His Jason Calacanis-inspired critique of The Wisdom Of Crowds is an abyssal nullity.

James Surowiecki is a great thinker, and the principles behind the wisdom of crowds are effective. (see point #3.)

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
  • I did drop BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
  • I dropped BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.

Independent Institutes weak blog post on prediction markets

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only used as a jumping off point for an oft-repeated and boring argument that voters ought consider candidates outside the dominant parties.

Sadly, I think the think tank question I posed at the end of 2006 is still no: When has a pro-market think tank ever subjected its policy recommendations to market evaluation?

So, I&#8217-ll extend the donation offer made in that post through the end of 2009.

Previous blog posts by Mike Linksvayer:

  • Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
  • Bob Barr markets
  • Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.
  • Small comforts of prediction markets
  • The Economist is taking suggestions.
  • Long-term housing derivatives?
  • Economists to Watch

Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) discussing the Weekend Box Office and Summer Releases and predictions on Fox Business.

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

Those morons at Fox Business spelled his last name &#8220-Kostakis&#8221-, in the video.

So, now you know why nobody watches Fox Business &#8212-they are all on CNBC, who can spell correctly.

–

I&#8217-m not sure the video will go into our feed&#8230- In case, it does not, download this post, or go to the link above&#8230-


Summer Blockbuster&#8217-s featuring Alex Costakis of HSX on Fox Business from formula-hsx on Vimeo.

Posting On Midas Oracle versus Presenting At The Third WorkShop

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

MIDAS ORACLE: 1,600 daily readers (600 visitors on the Web + 1,000 feed subscribers)

THIRD WORKSHOP: 40 people in the room. – [Psstt… All the links to the presented papers… here.]

–

Ratio: 40 to 1.

There are 40 times more people on Midas Oracle than in that Chicago conference room.

TAKEAWAY: If your goal as a researcher is truly to get your ideas out, then come blogging with us on Midas Oracle.

–

For Once

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

I agree with Nancy Pelosi.

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.

Yet another attempt at legalizing Internet betting and gambling in the United States of America

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

USA Today

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.

A good resume, in the field of prediction markets, should mention and link to Midas Oracle, of course. You, too, could be part of the gang. Join us today.

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

Last year, nobody would give the first fig about a &#8220-Michael Giberson&#8221-. He was insignificant. Now, with the orbital price of oil, Mike becomes hot, all of the sudden. I hope he&#8217-ll mind some energy prediction markets, one day, when he has time.

–

–

How to join Midas Oracle and how to blog with us here&#8230-

How to connect with Midas Oracle on LinkedIn&#8230-

–