I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only used as a jumping off point for an oft-repeated and boring argument that voters ought consider candidates outside the dominant parties.
Sadly, I think the think tank question I posed at the end of 2006 is still no: When has a pro-market think tank ever subjected its policy recommendations to market evaluation?
So, I’-ll extend the donation offer made in that post through the end of 2009.
Previous blog posts by Mike Linksvayer:
- Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
- Bob Barr markets
- Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.
- Small comforts of prediction markets
- The Economist is taking suggestions.
- Long-term housing derivatives?
- Economists to Watch
Dixit Mike linksvayer, last year.
Once again, Mike Linksvayer is right on target.
This guy is incredibly pertinent.
Mike is one of my best sources of inspiration.
Thanks to his two posts linked above, I’-ll refine an idea of mine I’-ve gotten recently.
One day, I’-ll offer this vegan some box of foie gras, to thank him. Or maybe frog legs. Or snails. Or cheese that smells like people’-s feet. Or the latest Michel Houellebecq. Or whatever with a French undertone. I’-ll have to show him my appreciation for his indirect help in fertilizing my mind.
Mike Linksvayer’-s little blog
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Would be fun to have the equivalent for event derivatives.
- “We’ll be eight degrees hotter in 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow.” “Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals,” said Turner, 69. “Civilization will have broken down. The few people left will be living in a failed state —like Somalia or Sudan— and living conditions will be intolerable.”
- QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?
- YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets
- The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.