I am dropping BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets -until they re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.

No GravatarNo direct to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.

No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.

No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.

So, this is my last post on BetFair till they fix their 2 frontpages and put back the direct links to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.

APPENDIX: Here&#8217-s my July 2008 message to the CFTC where I said that TradeSports and BetFair are (&#8221-were&#8221-, in the case of BetFair, now) doing good, and sending some of the liquidity (which they acquire with sports) on the socially valuable prediction markets. See also what I said to BusinessWeek.

When the CFTC look at the 2 BetFair frontpages, they will now get to the conclusion that Chris Masse is an idiot, who was probably paid to talk up BetFair.

Thank you, BetFair.

Appreciated.

HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System

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By how much will Porsche&#8217-s profit be higher than its turnover?

Interesting new prediction market at HubDub.

What I have just realized is that the most sociable of the HubDub traders (like the one who created the question above) can drive many of their &#8220-friends&#8221- to their newly created prediction market(s). I used to think that only a blogger would do that &#8212-I was wrong. HubDub has a performing social networking system that works in symbiosis with its prediction exchange. Very efficient.

The more I dive into HubDub the more I find it smart and well structured.

HubDub will get quoted in the future, just like the Hollywood Stock Exchange is, today… – PROBABILITY = 33%, AT BEST.

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HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles:

I fully appreciate the work that Emile and others have done but just because something hasn’t worked before doesn’t mean it can’t happen. […] Sometimes ideas take time and a fresh perspective before they achieve their full potential. […]

My thoughts:

  1. The future is present today as a seed. If we examine today&#8217-s seed under a microscope, we can see part of the future. The fact is that the prices/probabilities from NewsFutures&#8217- play-money prediction markets are NEVER quoted by journalists and bloggers. They quote only InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
  2. &#8220-Time&#8221- can change that, indeed, provided that HubDub multiplies volumes by a factor of one million &#8212-which is what I wish for them.
  3. I don&#8217-t see the &#8220-fresh perspective&#8221- that HubDub would be bringing to the table. HubDub resembles a lot to NewsFutures. (The differences in terms of market design, automated market maker, and breath of topics, are a minor.) HubDub is a generalist, play-money prediction exchange, just like NewsFutures is.

How does InTrade deal with insider trading?

InTrade CEO John Delaney (in 2007):

Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have information, then getting that information reflected in the market increases the quality of the information. I know this is not the conventional view concerning insider trading, and I am not arguing wholesale adoption or acceptance of insider trading. But we all know that, in the real world, insiders trade on inside information. We have even had markets on insider trading. Our view is to get the best information available into the market while we make sure there is some fair protection for outsiders.

As I said, the problem is that this view is very unpopular among event derivative traders.

APPENDIX: Economic arguments in favor of insider trading.

The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.

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Slate&#8217-s Jack Shafer (my favorite libertarian journalist &#8211-both small &#8220-L&#8221- and capitalized &#8220-L&#8221-):

[…] visiting the woman who recently gave birth to the out-of-wedlock child of a married campaign aide is completely OK. But meeting her at a Beverly Hills hotel in the early hours of the morning and running from tabloid reporters when approached and hiding in a hotel bathroom for 15 minutes, as the Enquirer reports Edwards did, is not completely OK. Not if he wants to avoid the hypocrite label.

See also Slate&#8217-s Mickey Klaus.

UPDATE: BusinessWeek

Become friend with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.

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Connect with me on GMAIL:

chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|

I have just done something really stupid. I accidentally deleted almost all my friends at GMAIL (except the prediction market people). I want to slap my face. If you don&#8217-t see me anymore within Google Reader, please re-connect with me. (By defintion, I lost your e-mail address, so I cannot reconnect with you on my own.) I&#8217-m an idiot, I know.

Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.

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Freakonomics:

July 22nd,
2008
4:47 pm

I am producing the Freakonomics documentary, so I am particularly interested to read the comments to Prof. Strumpf’s guest post.

Koleman properly identified the likely reasons for FRKON’s summer swoon on the Hollywood Stock Exchange. While I cannot provide a definitive explanation for precisely which of those reasons was most influential, I can offer insight into what is actually transpiring (as distinguished from its virtual performance on HSX).

1. Theory: Changes in the likelihood of the movie being made. Reality: The film will be made- it is already “green lit”. I am an independent producer, subject to no studio. The likelihood of the film getting made has not wavered since I originally optioned the cinematic rights to Freakonomics. The only variables have been the scheduling vagaries and other challenges related to using multiple directors.

2. Theory: Changes in the perceived quality of the movie. Koleman posits a couple of possibilities: “funding shortfalls” and “conflicts among the five sets of directors”. Reality: There are no funding shortfalls (I am financing the film myself). None would have emerged yet, anyway. We haven’t even begun shooting the film. The directors will not be working together, so conflicts seem extraordinarily unlikely. To date, they have universally praised each other.

3. Theory: Out of sight, out of mind. Reality: This theory is true. We announced the project in December 2007 and earned a lot of press. Things have quieted significantly since then. We will get another wave of publicity this fall when we have presentable footage. We have another announcement that should generate attention, too (I address that below). Finally, there will be the inevitable surge of publicity when we announce our festival screenings in spring of 2009.

4. Theory: Get the movie mothballed. Reality: Although I am fascinated by conspiracy theories, they don’t apply here. There are no other investors. The Freakonomics documentary is as unconventional as the book. We hope it will be as iconic, too.

My theory: When we moved the shooting schedule from March to September, in order to better accommodate everyone’s schedules, I suspect the HSX investor community got restless. Moreover, FRKON is traded on an extraordinarily small base. Just a few purchases have a profound impact. It only took a few sellers to send the price hurtling downward. Put simply, now seems like a very opportune time to buy FRKON. The graph used shows its low mark on July 13th – it is up approximately 27% since last week and should continue to climb, just based on this blog post.

As a historical reference, I was an investor and Executive Producer for the critical darling, Paris je T’aime, another film that utilized the talents of several directors. It took several years to get made. Historically, omnibus projects just tend to take a little longer to make.

Sam, I appreciate the spirit of your post. I am a devoted fan of Freakonomics first and a producer second. Like you, I would like to involve as many people as possible in this project. Fortunately, we are poised to announce an innovative way to involve the entire Freakonomics community and attract rogue filmmakers. I’ll speak with Stephen and Steven about it, and we’ll announce it here first!

I am pleased to personally answer any questions the readers have about the Freakonomics documentary.

— Posted by Chad Troutwine

Our previous post

Each week, Predictify will ask a VIP to submit a question for the crowd to answer.

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Excellent idea.

I told the CFTC that inputs from external, vertical experts are important.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.