Category Archives: Resources References

What is a prediction market? – Definitions & Explainers

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Listing of explainers on prediction markets:

  • Yahoo! Answers
    • &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- — &#8220-prediction market&#8221-
  • Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned.
    • &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- — &#8220-prediction market&#8221-
  • WikiBooks — WikiBooks – (English) — Search for &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-
  • WikiNews — WikiNews – (English) — Search for &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-
  • Wikipedia — Wikipedia – (English) — Prediction Markets — Betting Exchanges — Derivatives — The Wisdom Of Crowds — Collective Intelligence — Forecasting
  • Handbook on Collective Intelligence – by MIT CCI

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  • Midas Oracle
    • Explainer on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • List of explainers on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • &#8220-Explainers&#8221- post category – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • Prediction Market Science – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • Prediction Markets Timeline – at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • Robin Hanson
    • Idea Futures (not updated) — Futarchy — The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive – by Robin Hanson
    • Prediction Markets Definitions – by Robin Hanson – 2006-11-21
    • The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2007-09-05
    • The concept of Info Value – by Robin Hanson – 2008-01-14
  • David Pennock
    • Implementing Hanson’s Market Maker – by David Pennock – 2006-10-30
    • Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions – by David Pennock – 2006-12-26
    • Does Wisdom Require Markets? – by David Pennock – 2007-01-19
    • How and When to Listen to the Crowd – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
    • Computational aspects of prediction markets – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
    • The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming – by David Pennock – 2008-02-19
    • What is (and what good is) a combinatorial prediction market? – by David Pennock – 2008-12-22
  • Panos Ipeirotis
    • Defining Probability in Prediction Markets – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-13
    • Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-14
  • Chris Hibbert
    • PM Intro: Basic Formats – [simple double auctions] – by Chris Hibbert – 2005-12-30
    • PMs with Open-Ended Prices – [markets with open-ended prices] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-01-05
    • Looking at Both Sides – [the symmetry of complementary purchases] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-17
    • Market Design: Book and Market Maker – [how to integrate an order book with an automated market maker] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-28
    • Increasing Liquidity in Multi-Outcome Claims – [the mechanics of multi-outcome markets] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-07-19
    • Continuous Outcomes: Bands, Ladders, and Scaled Claims – [predicting the value of a continuous variable] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
    • Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
    • Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-03-06
    • Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-09-10
  • New York Times
    • The History of Prediction Markets – by the New York Times – 2007-11-04
  • BBC News
    • How does a betting exchange work? How does BetFair work? – by BBC News – 2007-12-07
  • Forrester
    • Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – by Forrester – 2007-07-14
  • James Surowiecki
    • The Wisdom Of Crowds – by James Surowiecki – 2005-xx-xx

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Are you aware of any/some explainer(s) out there not listed above? If yes, please e-mail me. Thanks. Appreciated. Will make up to you.
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Prediction Markets TV – Will the controversial but indispensable Max Keiser (ex-HSX) stay true to his purpose, or will he f*** it up?

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Previously: VIDEO: Max Keiser’s attempt at predicting the future —subjectively

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External Link: Max Keiser blogs at the Huffington Post.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
  • Averaging One’s Guesses
  • Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
  • A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The Numbers Guy