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The latest developments. (audio)
I am skeptical, since the US Congress has just outlawed movie prediction markets, but I wish good luck to Chris Rabelais et al. Maybe the political scene will be different next year, who knows.
UPDATE: As you’-ve understood, I was talking about CFTC-approved real-money prediction markets, here.
The patent.
The latest developments. (audio)
I am skeptical, since the US Congress has just outlawed movie prediction markets, but I wish good luck to Chris Rabelais et al. Maybe the political scene will be different next year, who knows.
UPDATE: As you’ve understood, I was talking about CFTC-approved real-money prediction markets, here.
Justin Wolfers is asked the question, but I would have a different answer than his.
The reason prediction markets are not widely used in business is that their many boosters (Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, etc.) have exaggerated their usefulness. Just because they are objective in their wisdom does not mean that they are very useful.
Objectivity is over-rated. This is a painful lesson for the handful of young startups who swallowed the prediction market myth. Next step: the dead pool.