Xpree = Innovations + Prediction Markets

Posted on January 29, 2008 by admin

Xpree launches Open Innovation Markets, a simplified betting interface and also a new website.

Open Innovation Markets combines crowd based innovation, voting and prediction markets. The idea is to brainstorm as a community, vote on the ideas to rank them, then forecast key metrics using a market (cost to develop etc). Prediction markets work well for the estimations of unbiased key metrics, combining this with voting allows the crowd to bet on only the top ranked ideas.

In an effort to make truly Usable Markets, we changed from a &#8220-stock trading&#8221- metaphor to a &#8220-betting&#8221- metaphor. In research, we found that players found shorting stock to be a lot less intuitive than going long. With betting, &#8220-I bet $100 that X is lower than 3,000&#8243- is as easy as saying &#8220-I bet $100 that X is higher than 3,000&#8243-, and is a whole lot easier than &#8220-I sell short 10 stock units at an average price of $X, and cover this with $Y&#8221- etc. We have some demos on our site for you to try out. For the prediction market purists out there, we still allow the player to see the underlying prediction market dynamics – no black boxes at Xpree.

Feedback welcome.

prediction markets

Barack Obamas victory in South Carolina wont stop the Clintons.

Posted on January 28, 2008 by admin

Dixit InTrade.

The Clintons

&#8212-

South Carolina

The Barack Obama event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem SC Obama

Dem SC CLinton

Dem SC Edwards

Source: InTrade

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Many people twitter on prediction markets.
Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
Prediction Market Journalism
TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
The Six Degrees Of Separation

eTech 2008 – Googles enterprise prediction markets

Posted on January 28, 2008 by admin

O&#8217-Reilly Conference – eTech 2008: Prediction markets and the flow of information at Google – San Diego, California, USA – 2008-03-03~06

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Many people twitter on prediction markets.
Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
Prediction Market Journalism
TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
The Six Degrees Of Separation

Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Posted on January 28, 2008 by admin

Robin Hanson:

[&#8230-] The main problem with using [Michael] Abramowicz&#8217-s book as a &#8220-technical manual&#8221-, however, is that he&#8217-s never actually seen, much less touched, most of the blocks he describes. His conclusions are not supported or tested by math models, computer simulations, lab experiments, field trials, nor a track record of successful past proposals – it is all based on his untested intuitions. And he doesn&#8217-t seem inclined to do any such testing himself – he hopes his book will inspire others to do that. There is of course a spectrum of rigor in how solidly one can support a claim. Most business decisions are based on far less rigor that elite academics often demand, and there is surely a place for &#8220-brainstorming&#8221- speculation. Compared with most academics, I admit I have often been more than toward the speculation end of the spectrum, though I have tried to test my speculations via math models, lab experiments, field trials, and have arguably collected a modest track record of success. [&#8230-]

Michael Abramowicz&#8217-s response:

[&#8230-] The incentives provided by two of my technical proposals (the decentralized subsidy approach and the nobody-loses prediction market) are sufficiently straightforward to me that math seems superfluous to me, though I agree that field tests comparing these with alternatives would be useful. Two of the proposals (the text-authoring market and the market web) could certainly benefit from experimentation, but the software needed to implement them would be considerably more complicated than what is needed for existing prediction markets. [&#8230-]

Robin Hanson&#8217-s second take.

Michael Abramowicz&#8217-s post.

Robin Hanson on futarchy vs. predictocracy.

Michael Abramowicz.

Robin Hanson.

I will blog about this book, once I have read it, in the near future.

Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

All the book is online, at the web address above. You can also buy it at bookshops, or at Amazon.

Predictocracy

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Many people twitter on prediction markets.
Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
Prediction Market Journalism
TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
The Six Degrees Of Separation

Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies are Outsourcing to China

Posted on January 28, 2008 by admin

White Paper

Paul Denlinger:

This white paper examines some of the unique challenges Indian software companies are facing:
The decreasing talent pool-
Rising costs-
Insufficient infrastructure and-
Not enough time to train and build infrastructure
It then shows how China is the answer to their problems because:
It has only talent pool which is large enough to compare to India’s-
The local talent pool is still largely untapped in the second-tier cities-
Ten cities have targeted software development as part of their development initiatives-
Good universities provide strong training and basic skills-
English and communication skills are swiftly catching up.

This white paper is free &#8212-provided that you register on Paul Denlinger&#8217-s site.

Heres an example of the total crap that the BetFair blog is publishing.

Posted on January 27, 2008 by admin

Betting @ BetFair - Home

Betting @ BetFair - Sports

Betting @ BetFair - Specials

Betting @ BetFair - Poker

Betting @ BetFair - Casino

BetFair blog:

Pamela Anderson&#8217-s Poker Guru

PAMELA Anderson says she is &#8220-done with the marriage thing&#8221-.
Pammy is divorcing her third husband. The marriage lasted four months. Says Pammy: &#8220-My mom wishes I was born gay&#8221-. She adds: &#8220-I am in the market for a good divorce attorney.&#8221- And, who knows, maybe the attorney is the market for a wife. Of course, before her next marriage, Pammy has to complete her divorce from the man we call [?] Rick Salomon and Metro newspaper calls a &#8220-poker guru&#8221-. A guru is a recognized leader in a field, an acknowledged and influential advocate of a movement or idea. Rick Salomon is the man best known for appearing as &#8220-him&#8221- in the first Paris Hilton sex tape. He is not a poker guru. He is just someone who plays poker, sometimes&#8230-
Don&#8217-t be a Rick, play online&#8230- [link to the BetFair Poker site]

The posting is anonymous, as always, on that crappy blog.

No external link to the original news source &#8212-of course.

Pointless content, as usual. Why thinking before writing, when a vomit can do the trick?

As for rhetoric quality, my 6-year-old nephew could do better, if encouraged by a Hershey kiss.

Is there any adult in Hammersmith monitoring what the kids are doing on their computers?

Is professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams wise to write for that crappy blog? Justin Wolfers&#8217- association with the Wall Street Journal seems more adequate for a university professor.

Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

A case of advertisement mistaken for content
Michael Shermer’s The Mind of The Market
A prediction market panel… where only 2 out of 5 are truly prediction market experts. What a nuclear joke. This poor line-up is the reflection of the poor state of the prediction market industry in the US… and the inherent mediocrity of the conference business.
VentureBeat makes it like established veterans NewsFutures, Consensus Point and Inkling Markets are contemporary of just-out-of-the-egg Xpree.
13 lines for Justin Wolfers, but only 2 lines and one word for Eric Zitzewitz — Mat Fogarty, what were you thinking of?
Ducted Wind Turbines (DFWT)
The Betting King — The ATP Tour was his NASDAQ.

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Posted on January 27, 2008 by admin

Dear Midas Oracle readers,

I&#8217-m happy to report progress in building the architecture and content of our group blog, Midas Oracle. Let me introduce you to our 2 master pages: &#8220-PREDICTIONS&#8221- and &#8220-BEST&#8221-.

&#8212-

#1. PREDICTIONS

Predictions

http://www.midasoracle.org/predictions/

= our explainer on prediction markets + the best charts of prediction markets

Following the New Hampshire brouhaha, I believe that the way to go is to systematically associate (when time and space permit) a short probability explainer to any published chart of prediction market. You can see such an association at the top of our blog frontpage. I will do that in some blog posts, too, in the future.

Political charts from InTrade and NewsFutures are published there. Charts from more exchanges will be added there over the coming weeks, months, and years. Suggestions are welcomed.

Thanks to Michael Giberson and Emile Servan-Schreiber for some tiny input in establishing that brand-new page.

&#8212-

#2. BEST

Best

http://www.midasoracle.org/best/

= the best external weblinks on prediction markets + the best Midas Oracle posts on prediction markets

This file has been quite popular &#8212-see the web stats report, in the appendix. I will, of course, augment this file with many more pointers, in the coming weeks, months, and years. Suggestions are welcomed.

&#8212-

#3. ARCHIVES

Journalism Failures – Big Time

Posted on January 27, 2008 by admin

&#8212-

– In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the &#8220-most innovative company&#8221-.

– In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.

– In January 2008, the &#8220-BetFair Prof&#8221- (Leighton Vaughan-Williams) claimed, on the BetFair blog, that the &#8220-betting markets&#8221- foresaw the Republican race in the Michigan primary.

– In January 2008, Risk magazine named SOCIETE GENERALE (recently busted by one of its traders, which lead to a loss of 7.2 billion dollars) the &#8220-equity derivatives house of the year&#8221-.

&#8212-

TAKEAWAY: Either by complete incompetence or by lack of investigation means, journalism is not up to its lofty goal &#8212-telling the truth to people.

&#8212-

Risk magazine

(Via Marc Andreessen.)

&#8212-

Jerome Kerviel, soon to be named &#8220-person of the year&#8221- by Risk magazine?

Jerome Kerviel

&#8212-

Societe General Tower in Paris

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

Did the Fed make one of the biggest emergency rate cuts ever because of one rogue French trader?

Posted on January 26, 2008 by admin

Soc Gen

Sources: New York Times via Bloomberg

No blog reaction about Justin Wolfers prediction market piece in the WSJ.

Posted on January 25, 2008 by admin

Yet.

That&#8217-s key to see whether his flavor of prediction market journalism (heavily based on a single technique called prediction market event study) can take off. As I said in yesterday&#8217-s blog post, even though his work is interesting, he is up against formidable competitors. Political analysts like Lawrence O&#8217-Donnell, Eleanor Clift, Mort Zuckerman, Pat Buchanan, Radley Blako, etc. &#8211-to name a few pundits (left and right)&#8211- produce riveting content. Can Justin Wolfers, as a political analyst using a prediction market analysis tool, break through this competitive pack? As of today, Justin Wolfers&#8217- journalistic work is artificially subsidized (so to speak), because the WSJ wants to launch and establish a play-money prediction sub-exchange. A step in the forward direction would be to see the big political blogs like InstaPundit or DailyKos stealing Justin Wolfers&#8217- method, and boosting their pageviews thanks to that. We will see. I&#8217-m not holding my breath.

The criteria that I would use to assess prediction market journalism are professional credibility, webpage popularity, the quantity and quality of the blog reactions, the amount of visitors sent to the discussed prediction market(s), and the number of journalists who ultimately embrace this method. See another criterion?

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina won’t stop the Clintons.
eTech 2008 — Google’s enterprise prediction markets
Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making
Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub
Why you should launch your brand-new prediction exchange at a conference
Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies are Outsourcing to China
Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Midas Oracle.ORG – Predictions & Innovation

Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth

Yearly Archives: 2008

Xpree = Innovations + Prediction Markets

Barack Obamas victory in South Carolina wont stop the Clintons.

eTech 2008 – Googles enterprise prediction markets

Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies are Outsourcing to China

Heres an example of the total crap that the BetFair blog is publishing.

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Journalism Failures – Big Time

Did the Fed make one of the biggest emergency rate cuts ever because of one rogue French trader?

No blog reaction about Justin Wolfers prediction market piece in the WSJ.