No blog reaction about Justin Wolfers prediction market piece in the WSJ.


That&#8217-s key to see whether his flavor of prediction market journalism (heavily based on a single technique called prediction market event study) can take off. As I said in yesterday&#8217-s blog post, even though his work is interesting, he is up against formidable competitors. Political analysts like Lawrence O&#8217-Donnell, Eleanor Clift, Mort Zuckerman, Pat Buchanan, Radley Blako, etc. &#8211-to name a few pundits (left and right)&#8211- produce riveting content. Can Justin Wolfers, as a political analyst using a prediction market analysis tool, break through this competitive pack? As of today, Justin Wolfers&#8217- journalistic work is artificially subsidized (so to speak), because the WSJ wants to launch and establish a play-money prediction sub-exchange. A step in the forward direction would be to see the big political blogs like InstaPundit or DailyKos stealing Justin Wolfers&#8217- method, and boosting their pageviews thanks to that. We will see. I&#8217-m not holding my breath.

The criteria that I would use to assess prediction market journalism are professional credibility, webpage popularity, the quantity and quality of the blog reactions, the amount of visitors sent to the discussed prediction market(s), and the number of journalists who ultimately embrace this method. See another criterion?

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina won’t stop the Clintons.
  • eTech 2008 — Google’s enterprise prediction markets
  • Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making
  • Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub
  • Why you should launch your brand-new prediction exchange at a conference
  • Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies are Outsourcing to China
  • Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *