Tag Archives: VP prediction markets

How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”. In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, InTrade, Joe Biden, prediction markets, primary indicators, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets | 5 Comments

HubDub’s Nigel Eccles ridiculizes Paul Kedrosky’s post bashing the prediction markets after the Sarah Palin upset.

Posted on August 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Hilarious. – -

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Humor, InTrade, Nigel Eccles, Paul Kedrosky, political markets, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, VP prediction markets | Leave a comment

Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

Posted on August 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Tim Pawlenty won’t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it’s Mitt Romney. The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday. That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, John McCain, Mitt Romney, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican vice presidential nominee, Tim Pawlenty, US politics, vice president, vice presidential prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP prediction markets, VPs | 4 Comments

Anyone knows the reasoning behind HubDub suspending all their Republican VP prediction markets?

Posted on August 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Bizarre. No official VP announcement has been made, yet. Why can’t we trade on HubDub till the very end…???????… HubDumb…?… UPDATE: Markets un-suspended, now. Nigel Eccles does not know why the category editor did suspend that. UPDATE: The HubDub category … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged HubDub, prediction markets, VP prediction markets | 9 Comments

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections. – The bad point is that, at … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayth, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Joe Biden, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US politics, vice president prediction markets, VP prediction markets, VP-candidate prediction markets, Wall Street Journal, WSJ | 3 Comments

Please, take part in this survey. If you read this within your feed reader, maybe you will need to go to this post to take part in the poll.

Posted on August 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Midas Oracle Polls | Tagged poll, VP prediction markets | Leave a comment

CNN closed their 2 VP prediction markets… and immediately opened 2 not-brand-new VP prediction markets, with a full listing of candidate names, this time.

Posted on August 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, CNN Political Markets, John McCain, Politics, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice president prediction markets, VP, VP prediction markets | 1 Comment

I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month): MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential … Continue reading →

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, ado, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting, event derivative markets, event derivative parkets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, information, InTrade, John McCain, McLaughlin Group, NewsFutures, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, search committee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential search committees, VP, VP prediction markets | 5 Comments

Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.

Posted on June 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The topic of this post is: Betting & Information – - #1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting, Democratic Vice President, Dick Cheney, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, FREE FALL, George W. Bush, Google, head, Hillary Clinton, information, Information Technology, InTrade, Iraq, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, PageRank, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Use technology, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, VP, VP nominee, VP prediction markets, VP predictions markets, VP-candidate prediction markets | 10 Comments

JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”.

Posted on June 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Guardian Take that, Mike R. – Reminder: I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. ) – InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jimmy Carter, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, The Guardian, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets | 1 Comment

Tag Archives: VP prediction markets

Meta

Recent Posts