Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: VP prediction markets

How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 3, 2008 — 5 Comments

Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”.
In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In a field of about four or [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , ,

HubDub’s Nigel Eccles ridiculizes Paul Kedrosky’s post bashing the prediction markets after the Sarah Palin upset.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 31, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Hilarious.
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Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 29, 2008 — 4 Comments

Tim Pawlenty won’t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it’s Mitt Romney.
The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.
That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.
I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.
I told you so.
UPDATE: It’s probably Sarah [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Anyone knows the reasoning behind HubDub suspending all their Republican VP prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 29, 2008 — 9 Comments

Bizarre.
No official VP announcement has been made, yet. Why can’t we trade on HubDub till the very end…???????…
HubDumb…?…
UPDATE: Markets un-suspended, now. Nigel Eccles does not know why the category editor did suspend that.
UPDATE: The HubDub category editor has published a comment, below.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged ,

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 26, 2008 — 3 Comments

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections.
- The bad point is that, at the time he wrote up his column, Virginia governor Tim Kaine was the favorite of the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Please, take part in this survey. If you read this within your feed reader, maybe you will need to go to this post to take part in the poll.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 25, 2008 — Leave a Comment
Posted in Midas Oracle Polls | Also tagged

CNN closed their 2 VP prediction markets… and immediately opened 2 not-brand-new VP prediction markets, with a full listing of candidate names, this time.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 4, 2008 — 1 Comment
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 15, 2008 — 5 Comments

The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month):
MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential running mate. You put out the search committee, probably because Hillary Clinton was all over his [...]

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 5, 2008 — 10 Comments

The topic of this post is:
Betting & Information
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#1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets.
I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.
You can’t divine their final thoughts.
Politicians often lie about their intentions —they also change mind, frequently.
The [...]

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — 1 Comment

The Guardian
Take that, Mike R.
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Reminder: I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. )
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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BetFair
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Next Vice President:

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Democratic Ticket

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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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