Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

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Tim Pawlenty won&#8217-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it&#8217-s Mitt Romney.

The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.

That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.

I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.

I told you so.

UPDATE: It&#8217-s probably Sarah Palin.

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers August 1st column for the WSJ?

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The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections.

The bad point is that, at the time he wrote up his column, Virginia governor Tim Kaine was the favorite of the InTrade VP prediction markets. The others were, in decreasing order, Evan Bayth, Kathleen Sebelius, and then&#8230- Joe Biden. So, the critic reading his column today could say that the prediction markets are oversold to a gullible public and that a prediction market bubble ready to pop up is forming under our very nose.

– Now, we know that Barack Obama made his decision while vacationing in Hawaii (less than 2 weeks ago). That&#8217-s only from that date that the VP prediction markets started generating probabilistic predictions worth quoting. The trick is that Justin Wolfers (and the other prediction market analysts) didn&#8217-t know that, on August 1st. (PDF file)

– I don&#8217-t regret my decision not to publish about the VP prediction markets. I&#8217-d look like an idiot today.